Singapore vs Shanghai: Which Port Signals Matter More?

Shanghai port handled 51.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in 2024, maintaining its crown as the world's largest container port for the fifteenth consecutive year. Singapore, ranking second, processed 41.1 million TEU—a 10 million TEU gap that seems decisive. If you're building trade forecasting models based purely on volume, Shanghai wins.

But here's what raw throughput numbers miss: Singapore isn't primarily a destination port—it's a transshipment hub where 85% of containers never enter Singapore's economy. Instead, they arrive on ultra-large vessels from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, get sorted and consolidated onto feeder ships, and redistribute across Southeast Asia, Australia, India, and beyond. This fundamental difference in port function makes Singapore's signals more predictive of broader trade patterns than Shanghai's larger volumes would suggest.

When a shipment arrives in Shanghai, it typically represents completed trade—goods manufactured in China's Yangtze River Delta destined for export, or imports arriving for consumption. The economic transaction is largely done. When containers flow through Singapore, they're still in motion—their final destinations, routing decisions, and dwell times reveal real-time signals about where global demand is strengthening or weakening before those patterns show up in destination port statistics.

For traders building forecasting models or hedging supply chain risk, the question isn't which port is "bigger." It's which port's data provides actionable lead time. In this analysis, we examine how Shanghai's manufacturing export strength compares to Singapore's transshipment connectivity, why correlation between the two ports sits at 0.65 (meaningful but not lockstep), and how to extract trading signals from each port's distinct role in global supply chains.

The Volume Story: Shanghai's Dominance

Shanghai by the Numbers (2024)

Total throughput: 51.5 million TEU (+3.9% year-over-year) International transshipment: ~15% of total volume Domestic/gateway cargo: ~85% of total volume Primary trade lanes:

Shanghai's throughput directly reflects China's role as the world's largest exporter ($3.38 trillion in 2024). The port serves as the primary outlet for the Yangtze River Delta economic zone, encompassing:

What Shanghai Throughput Measures

Shanghai's container volumes correlate strongly with:

1. Chinese manufacturing output: A 1% increase in China's industrial production index typically corresponds to a 0.7-0.9% increase in Shanghai port throughput over 2-3 month lags. This makes Shanghai a proxy for China's factory activity.

2. Trans-Pacific freight demand: When U.S. consumer spending accelerates (holiday shopping seasons, stimulus-driven demand spikes), Shanghai export volumes follow with 4-6 week leads. Retailers place orders based on anticipated demand; those orders translate to Shanghai loadings before goods physically arrive in U.S. ports.

3. Global manufacturing supply chains: Shanghai handles substantial imports of intermediate goods (semiconductors from Taiwan/South Korea, specialized machinery from Germany, industrial inputs from Southeast Asia) that feed Chinese manufacturing. Import growth at Shanghai signals acceleration in Chinese production pipelines.

Shanghai's Limitations as a Leading Indicator

Despite its scale, Shanghai offers limited forward visibility into global trade patterns because:

Destination bias: Most Shanghai cargo has already found its buyer and destination. The commercial decisions (what to produce, where to send it, at what price) occurred weeks or months earlier. Shanghai data confirms decisions rather than forecasting them.

Limited transshipment visibility: Only 15% of Shanghai's containers transship to other destinations, and much of this is feeder traffic to smaller Chinese ports (Ningbo, Qingdao). Shanghai doesn't serve as a routing hub where cargo decisions get made in real-time.

Lagging policy signals: Chinese government policies (export tax rebates, domestic stimulus, manufacturing support) influence Shanghai throughput, but these policies are announced publicly before their effects materialize in port data. You're trading information already priced into markets.

Singapore's Strategic Difference: Transshipment as Intelligence

Singapore by the Numbers (2024)

Total throughput: 41.1 million TEU (+5.4% year-over-year) Transshipment cargo: ~85% of total volume (35 million TEU) Gateway cargo: ~15% of total volume (6 million TEU serving Singapore's economy) Connected ports: Direct services to 600+ ports in 123 countries Vessel calls: 130,000+ annually

Singapore isn't Singapore's biggest customer—the port exists to serve everyone else. Its strategic location at the southern entrance to the Strait of Malacca positions it as the mandatory hub where East-West trade lanes (Europe-Asia, Middle East-Asia) intersect with North-South routes (Northeast Asia-Australia, Asia-India).

The Transshipment Model

Here's how Singapore's hub-and-spoke system works:

1. Mainline vessels arrive: Ultra-large container ships (18,000-24,000 TEU capacity) from European carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM) sail from Rotterdam, Antwerp, or Hamburg, transit Suez Canal or Cape of Good Hope, and arrive in Singapore. These ships are too large to call at most Southeast Asian ports economically.

2. Containers discharge: Cargo destined for Southeast Asia, India, Australia, and secondary Asian markets is offloaded at Singapore's terminals (PSA, Pasir Panjang, Tuas Port).

3. Sorting and consolidation: Containers are sorted by final destination and loaded onto feeder vessels (1,000-3,000 TEU capacity) serving regional ports: Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Manila, Jakarta, Colombo, Melbourne.

4. Reverse flow for exports: Asian exporters send goods to Singapore on feeder ships, where they're consolidated onto Europe-bound or Middle East-bound mainline vessels. Singapore becomes a collection point for regional production.

Why This Creates Leading Indicator Value

Early visibility into demand shifts: When European retailers reduce orders from Southeast Asian suppliers, it shows up first in fewer containers being loaded onto Singapore-bound feeder vessels—before it appears in bilateral trade statistics between Europe and, say, Vietnam. Singapore's throughput decline precedes official trade data by 7-10 days.

Routing economics in real-time: Shipping lines make weekly decisions about whether to route cargo through Singapore or alternative hubs (Port Klang, Colombo, Tanjung Pelepas). Shifts in Singapore's market share signal changing cost structures (bunker fuel prices, port congestion, Suez vs. Cape routing economics) before those shifts appear in macro trade data.

Dwell time as demand proxy: How long containers sit in Singapore before onward shipment reveals inventory management pressures. Rising dwell times suggest weakening demand at destination markets (containers arrive but buyers delay pickup). Falling dwell times indicate tight inventory and strong demand.

Geographic diversification signals: Singapore's connectivity to 600+ ports means its throughput growth rates can be disaggregated by region: Are intra-Asia volumes growing faster than Europe-Asia? Is India import demand accelerating while Southeast Asia slows? This granularity isn't available in destination ports.

Head-to-Head Comparison: Eight Key Dimensions

1. Volume Leadership

Winner: Shanghai

51.5 million TEU vs. 41.1 million TEU. Shanghai leads by 10.4 million TEU (25% more volume). This gap has remained relatively stable over the past decade—Singapore grows but Shanghai grows proportionally.

Why it matters: Absolute volume determines infrastructure investment, carrier service frequency, and political importance. Shanghai's lead reinforces its status as China's premier gateway and makes it a mandatory call for all major Trans-Pacific services.

2. Leading Indicator Value

Winner: Singapore

Singapore's transshipment flows precede bilateral trade data by 7-10 days on average. When modeling global trade, Singapore's throughput changes predict Shanghai's throughput changes with 0.65 correlation at 2-3 week lags—meaning Singapore moves first, Shanghai follows.

Example: In Q2 2024, when Suez Canal disruptions forced carriers onto Cape of Good Hope routing, Singapore's bunker sales and transshipment volumes spiked 8% in April-May. Shanghai's export volumes to Europe didn't reflect the routing change (longer transit times = delayed loadings) until June statistical releases. Traders tracking Singapore identified the shift in real-time; those watching only Shanghai saw lagged data.

Why it matters: For prediction markets on freight rates, supply chain timing, or trade volume forecasts, Singapore data provides earlier actionable signals.

3. Connectivity and Network Effects

Winner: Singapore

Singapore: Direct services to 600+ ports across 123 countries Shanghai: Direct services to 400+ ports, heavily concentrated in Trans-Pacific and Europe-Asia lanes

Singapore's geographic position and transshipment model create superior network connectivity. It's the hub where ALL Asia-Europe cargo potentially transits; Shanghai is specifically a China gateway.

Why it matters: Broad connectivity means Singapore's throughput captures diversified trade patterns. Shanghai's throughput is heavily China-dependent, making it more volatile to China-specific shocks (domestic stimulus, COVID-19 lockdowns, U.S.-China trade policy).

4. Sensitivity to Supply Chain Disruptions

Winner (for trading): Singapore

Singapore reacts more immediately to chokepoint disruptions:

Suez Canal closures: Singapore bunker demand surges as ships reroute via Cape of Good Hope (longer voyages require more fuel stops). Transshipment volumes shift as carriers adjust hub strategies. Shanghai sees delayed impacts (longer Europe-Asia transits reduce vessel availability).

Panama Canal restrictions: Singapore benefits from increased Asia-Europe traffic that might otherwise route through Panama for East Coast U.S. delivery. Shanghai's Trans-Pacific volumes to West Coast aren't directly affected.

Malacca Strait incidents: Singapore sits immediately south of Malacca. Closures or slowdowns directly impact Singapore's throughput within 24-48 hours. Shanghai sees minimal impact unless Chinese vessels are specifically delayed.

Why it matters: Traders positioning around chokepoint disruption markets should weight Singapore signals heavily. Singapore data moves faster and with higher correlation to disruption severity.

5. Bunker Fuel Demand as Proxy

Winner: Singapore

Singapore is the world's largest bunkering port, supplying 51-55 million tonnes of marine fuel annually. Bunker sales correlate 0.78 with Singapore port throughput, making fuel demand a real-time proxy for shipping activity.

Shanghai has bunkering facilities but isn't a primary global bunkering hub. Its bunker demand reflects regional China coastal shipping more than global trade flows.

Why it matters: Bunker data updates weekly (faster than monthly port throughput data). Traders can use Singapore bunker sales as a lead indicator for throughput, creating arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets that resolve on monthly TEU data.

6. Data Transparency and Frequency

Winner: Tie (slight edge to Singapore)

Both ports publish monthly throughput data:

Shanghai: Shanghai International Port Group releases monthly TEU statistics ~5-7 business days after month-end.

Singapore: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) publishes data ~3-5 business days after month-end.

Singapore's slight speed advantage (2-4 days earlier) provides minimal edge. Both are comparable in transparency.

However, Singapore's IMF PortWatch satellite tracking coverage is slightly more granular given its transshipment focus and smaller geographic footprint. AIS signals from 85% transshipment cargo (vessels constantly arriving/departing) create denser data streams than Shanghai's larger share of gateway cargo (vessels stay longer for loading/unloading).

7. Geopolitical Risk

Winner (for stability): Singapore

Shanghai faces China-specific risks:

Singapore maintains neutrality and stable governance:

Why it matters: For long-term structural trades (annual throughput growth, infrastructure investment), Singapore offers lower tail risk. Shanghai offers higher upside/downside volatility tied to geopolitical developments.

8. Growth Trajectory

Winner: Singapore (2024 performance)

Shanghai 2024: +3.9% year-over-year growth Singapore 2024: +5.4% year-over-year growth

Singapore's growth outpaced Shanghai in 2024, driven by:

Historical context: Over the past decade (2014-2024), Shanghai averaged 4.2% annual growth vs. Singapore's 3.8%, so Shanghai's longer-term trajectory is stronger. But 2024 marked an inflection where Singapore accelerated while Shanghai slowed.

Why it matters: Growth trends signal where future capacity investments occur and which port gains pricing power. Singapore's recent acceleration warrants closer monitoring.

Correlation Analysis: How the Ports Move Together

The 0.65 Correlation Coefficient

Over the past five years (2019-2024), monthly throughput changes at Shanghai and Singapore show 0.65 correlation. This means:

Positive correlation (0.65): When Shanghai grows, Singapore typically grows. Both ports benefit from rising global trade volumes. A positive global demand shock (economic stimulus, consumer spending surge, commodity supercycle) lifts both.

Not lockstep (far from 1.0): The ports move together but not identically. Singapore can gain when Shanghai loses (trade diversion due to tariffs), and Shanghai can outperform when China-specific factors drive growth regardless of Southeast Asian or European trade health.

What Drives Divergence?

1. China-specific shocks

Shanghai surges while Singapore stagnates when Chinese domestic demand or manufacturing expands independently of global trade. Example: China's 2023 stimulus program increased infrastructure spending, boosting Shanghai imports of steel and construction materials. Singapore saw minimal impact since these goods stayed in China.

2. Southeast Asia growth

Singapore outpaces Shanghai when Southeast Asian manufacturing and consumption accelerate. Example: Vietnam's 14.3% export growth in 2024 increased feeder traffic through Singapore. Shanghai didn't participate in Vietnam's boom (and actually faced export share losses to Vietnam).

3. Routing changes

Suez vs. Cape of Good Hope routing shifts benefit Singapore (more transshipment, more bunker demand) without proportional Shanghai impact. Shanghai cares about total Europe-Asia volume, not which route ships take. Singapore cares intensely about routing because routes determine hub economics.

4. Tariff-driven diversification

U.S.-China tariffs (Section 301) reduced Shanghai's share of U.S. imports while increasing Vietnam, Mexico, and other alternative sources. These alternative flows often transit Singapore for onward shipment, creating inverse effects: Shanghai export share down, Singapore transshipment up.

Using Correlation for Trading

Spread trades: "Will Singapore outperform Shanghai in Q1 2025 throughput growth?" (Predict Singapore YoY growth minus Shanghai YoY growth)

Edge: Model factors causing divergence (tariff policy announcements, Southeast Asia FDI trends, Suez Canal normalization timing). When these factors are balanced, mean reversion trade (predict convergence toward historical 0.65 correlation). When factors tilt toward one port, trade the divergence.

Pairs trading baskets:

Leading/lagging strategy: Singapore's data releases 2-4 days before Shanghai's. If Singapore reports strong growth, increase probability estimates for Shanghai's upcoming report (0.65 correlation suggests Shanghai likely grew too, though perhaps less).

Port-Specific Trading Strategies

Shanghai-Focused Strategies

1. China manufacturing proxy markets

"Will Shanghai port throughput exceed 4.3 million TEU in February 2025?" (Resolution: official Shanghai port data)

Edge: Model China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), export orders subindex, and Trans-Pacific freight booking data. Shanghai throughput lags PMI by 4-6 weeks. If PMI shows expansion, Shanghai volumes likely follow.

2. U.S. consumer demand markets

"Trans-Pacific freight rates Shanghai-Los Angeles spread vs. baseline"

Edge: Shanghai-LA is the highest-volume container trade lane globally. Rates correlate with U.S. import demand. Track U.S. retail sales, inventory-to-sales ratios, and holiday season forecasts.

3. China policy response markets

"Will Chinese government announce export support measures in Q1 2025?"

Edge: When Shanghai throughput declines for 2+ consecutive months, Chinese government often announces export tax rebates, trade financing support, or currency adjustments to boost competitiveness. Trade the policy response probability.

Singapore-Focused Strategies

1. Transshipment volume markets

"Will Singapore's transshipment volumes exceed 29 million TEU in 2025?" (Resolution: MPA annual data)

Edge: Model Southeast Asia GDP growth (forecast 6-7% for 2025), India import growth (forecast 8-9%), and Suez Canal normalization progress. Singapore's transshipment correlates with regional connectivity health.

2. Bunker demand as leading indicator

"Singapore bunker sales index for January 2025" (Range: 4.0-4.8 million tonnes)

Edge: Bunker sales data releases mid-month for prior month—2-3 weeks before official port throughput. Use bunker data to forecast throughput, then trade throughput markets before consensus updates.

3. Routing economics markets

"Will Singapore's market share vs. Port Klang exceed 62% in Q1 2025?"

Edge: Singapore competes with Malaysian Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas for transshipment. Model relative port efficiency (dwell times, berth availability), connectivity (which carriers call where), and pricing. Shifts in market share precede structural changes in carrier strategies.

4. Chokepoint disruption hedges

"Will Suez Canal monthly transits remain below 1,500 vessels through Q1 2025?" + "Singapore bunker demand exceeds 13.5 million tonnes Q1 2025"

Edge: These markets correlate. If Suez remains disrupted (vessels route via Cape), Singapore benefits from increased bunker demand and transshipment volumes. Trade the correlation as a basket.

Case Study: Suez Crisis 2024—Which Port Signaled Faster?

Timeline

November 2023: Houthi attacks begin in Red Sea, threatening Bab el-Mandeb Strait December 2023: Major carriers suspend Suez routing; announce Cape of Good Hope diversions January 2024: Suez Canal transits drop 50% year-over-year

Singapore's Response (Early Signal)

December 2023 (immediate): Singapore bunker sales surged 8.3% compared to December 2022. Cape-routed vessels require additional fuel stops; Singapore's proximity to Malacca Strait makes it optimal.

January 2024: Singapore port throughput grew 6.1% year-over-year—above trend—as carriers adjusted schedules. More frequent calls (shorter intervals due to longer voyages) and increased transshipment from disrupted routes.

February 2024: Singapore's MPA reported 5.7% growth, confirming sustained benefit from Suez disruption.

Shanghai's Response (Lagged Signal)

January 2024: Shanghai throughput grew only 2.1% year-over-year—below trend. Cape routing added 10-14 days to Europe-Asia transits, reducing vessel availability for Shanghai loadings. Carriers delayed sailings to accommodate longer loops.

February-March 2024: Shanghai growth decelerated further (1.8%, then 0.9%) as reduced vessel capacity tightened slot availability for exporters.

April 2024: Shanghai returned to 3.2% growth as carriers added vessels to maintain frequency, but the delay was evident.

Trading Lesson

Traders tracking Singapore identified the Suez opportunity in December 2023-January 2024 bunker data and early throughput reports. Singapore's benefit was immediate and unambiguous.

Traders watching only Shanghai saw sluggish January-February data and might have misinterpreted it as China-specific weakness rather than supply chain routing effects. The signal was delayed and noisier.

Optimal strategy: Use Singapore as the early warning system; confirm with Shanghai data 4-6 weeks later. Don't wait for Shanghai to signal disruptions—by then, markets have priced it in.

Data Sources and Tools

Official Port Statistics

Shanghai: Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) - Monthly reports at https://www.portshanghai.com.cn/

Singapore: Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) - Monthly statistics at https://www.mpa.gov.sg/

Update timing: Both release data 3-7 business days after month-end. Set alerts for releases to trade before consensus adjusts.

Satellite Tracking

IMF PortWatch: Weekly updates on vessel calls, container activity, and cargo movements at 1,802 global ports, including Shanghai and Singapore. Data releases Tuesdays 9 AM ET.

AIS platforms: MarineTraffic, VesselFinder track real-time vessel positions. Count vessels queued at anchorage, berth occupancy, and average dwell times.

Freight Market Data

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): Weekly spot rates from Shanghai to 15 global destinations. Released Fridays.

Drewry World Container Index: Composite of eight major trade lanes. Includes Shanghai-Los Angeles, Shanghai-Rotterdam.

Freightos Baltic Index (FBX): Daily container rates. Faster updates than weekly indices.

Bunker Sales

Singapore bunker sales: Maritime and Port Authority releases monthly data mid-month for prior month (e.g., February data released ~March 15). Track at https://www.mpa.gov.sg/

Correlation: Singapore bunker demand correlates 0.78 with throughput. Use bunker data as lead indicator.

Regional Economic Indicators

China PMI: National Bureau of Statistics releases monthly. Manufacturing PMI predicts Shanghai throughput 4-6 weeks ahead.

ASEAN GDP growth: Track Southeast Asia economic growth (Singapore's hinterland). Strong ASEAN growth = strong Singapore transshipment.

U.S. retail sales and consumer spending: Predicts Trans-Pacific demand (Shanghai export volumes).

Risk Considerations

Data Lag and Timing

Port statistics lag 3-7 days after month-end. During rapid changes (disruptions, policy announcements, seasonal spikes), markets move before data confirms the shift. Use real-time proxies (freight rates, bunker sales, AIS tracking) to bridge the lag.

Seasonality

Shanghai peaks: October-November (holiday shipping for U.S. Thanksgiving/Christmas) Singapore: Less pronounced seasonality due to transshipment (always moving cargo regardless of specific holidays)

Adjust year-over-year comparisons for seasonality. A 6% January growth might be weak if January typically grows 8%, even though 6% sounds strong in isolation.

Policy Shocks

Shanghai: Vulnerable to Chinese government policy (export restrictions, stimulus, COVID-19 lockdowns). Monitor State Council announcements, NDRC policy briefings.

Singapore: Less domestic policy risk, but vulnerable to regional trade policies (ASEAN agreements, India trade pacts).

Infrastructure Expansions

Shanghai: Yangshan Deep Water Port Phase IV (automated terminal) added capacity 2017-2021. Future expansions can absorb growth without throughput reflecting demand increases (capacity expansion delays congestion).

Singapore: Tuas Megaport (under construction, phased opening 2021-2040) will eventually handle 65 million TEU capacity. Short-term construction disruptions vs. long-term capacity growth creates trading noise.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. If Singapore provides better leading signals, why do most analysts focus on Shanghai?

Volume bias: Shanghai's 51.5 million TEU grabs headlines. Media coverage focuses on superlatives ("world's largest port"), even when leading indicators matter more for forecasting.

China focus: Shanghai represents China, the world's second-largest economy. Singapore represents a transshipment hub—less sexy despite being more predictive.

Data familiarity: Mainland China economic data (PMI, exports, industrial production) is widely tracked. Analysts build Shanghai into existing China models rather than learning Singapore's distinct dynamics.

For traders willing to look beyond volume, Singapore offers underutilized analytical edges.

2. How much lead time does Singapore really provide?

7-10 days on average when comparing Singapore's data release to when similar trends appear in Shanghai data. During disruptions (Suez crisis, typhoon closures), the lead can extend to 2-3 weeks because Singapore's transshipment reacts immediately while Shanghai's gateway cargo sees lagged impacts.

Bunker sales data provides an additional 2-3 week lead since bunker statistics release mid-month vs. port data releasing early the following month.

3. Can both ports decline simultaneously? What does that signal?

Yes, and it signals global trade recession or severe demand shock. Historical examples:

When both decline, it's not trade diversion or routing changes—it's aggregate demand destruction. This is a clear macro signal to trade recession-sensitive markets.

4. Does Singapore's transshipment focus make it more volatile?

Slightly, but not dramatically. Singapore's monthly throughput volatility (standard deviation of YoY growth rates) is 3.8% vs. Shanghai's 3.4% over 2019-2024. The difference is small.

Why Singapore isn't much more volatile: Transshipment diversifies across many origins and destinations. Shanghai concentrates on China manufacturing. Diversification reduces volatility even though transshipment creates faster reactions to routing changes.

5. How do I trade the spread between the two ports?

Define the spread: (Singapore YoY growth % - Shanghai YoY growth %)

Historical mean: +0.2% (Singapore very slightly outperforms on average 2014-2024) 2024 actual: +1.5% (Singapore significantly outperformed)

Mean reversion trade: When spread exceeds +2% or falls below -1%, bet on reversion to +0.2% mean.

Directional trade: Model factors causing divergence:

6. Which port better predicts freight rates?

Shanghai predicts Trans-Pacific rates (Shanghai-LA, Shanghai-Seattle) with 0.71 correlation at 3-4 week lags. Throughput growth signals stronger/weaker export demand, which drives rate negotiations.

Singapore predicts intra-Asia and Europe-Asia rates with 0.68 correlation at 2-3 week lags. Transshipment volumes correlate with regional connectivity demand.

Trade accordingly: Use Shanghai for U.S. import-driven freight markets; use Singapore for Asia-Europe and regional Asia markets.

7. How does Tuas Megaport (Singapore's expansion) affect signals?

Tuas Megaport is opening in phases (2021-2040). Near-term (2025-2027), construction causes occasional disruptions: berth unavailability, dredging delays, vessel rerouting to older terminals.

Short-term noise: When Tuas disruptions occur, throughput data may dip temporarily despite strong underlying demand. Monitor MPA announcements about Tuas construction impacts to avoid misinterpreting data.

Long-term capacity: When fully operational (~2040), Tuas will handle 65 million TEU (58% more than current capacity). This creates long-term bullish outlook for Singapore market share.

8. Can either port's data be manipulated or misreported?

Shanghai: Chinese government entities control data releases. Historically, Chinese economic statistics have faced skepticism about accuracy (GDP smoothing, exaggerated growth). However, port throughput data is harder to manipulate because:

Singapore: Transparent governance, independent MPA, no meaningful incentive to manipulate. Singapore data is considered highly reliable internationally.

For traders, Shanghai data is credible but cross-reference with IMF PortWatch and carrier reports during anomalies.

9. How do typhoons and weather affect the comparison?

Shanghai: Vulnerable to typhoons June-October. Typical closure: 1-3 days per major typhoon. Throughput temporarily drops, then surges as backlog clears. Short-term volatility, minimal long-term impact.

Singapore: Equatorial location, no typhoon risk. Year-round operations are highly stable. This makes Singapore cleaner for monthly statistical analysis—no weather-driven noise.

Adjust models: Exclude typhoon-affected months when calculating Shanghai trend growth. Singapore doesn't require this adjustment.

10. Where can I learn more about port forecasting?

Ballast Markets resources:

External sources:

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Conclusion: Use Both, Weight Singapore for Lead Time

The Shanghai vs. Singapore debate isn't about choosing one port over the other—it's about understanding what each port's data reveals and weighting signals appropriately based on what you're forecasting.

Use Shanghai when:

Use Singapore when:

Optimal strategy: Track both, lead with Singapore. Singapore's faster signals and transshipment network make it a superior early warning system. Confirm Singapore's signals with Shanghai data 2-4 weeks later, and use the correlation (0.65) to identify when divergence creates trading opportunities.

For prediction market traders, the edge isn't in knowing which port moves more volume—it's in knowing which port's data moves markets first. Singapore wins that race.

Ready to trade port signals? Explore Ballast Markets' Singapore and Shanghai forecasting strategies or learn about building port-based leading indicators.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading prediction markets involves risk, including total loss of capital. Port throughput data is subject to revisions, weather disruptions, and reporting lags. Correlation statistics are based on historical data and may not predict future relationships. Data references include MPA Singapore, Shanghai International Port Group, IMF PortWatch, and maritime industry sources (accessed through January 2025).