Port of Jacksonville: Vehicle Trade & Puerto Rico Gateway Strategy Guide

The Port of Jacksonville set fiscal year 2024 records with 1,340,412 TEUs (up 2.0% year-over-year), 509,091 vehicle units (maintaining #2 East Coast ranking), and 10.05 million tons of total cargo—cementing its position as Florida's largest container port, the dominant Puerto Rico trade gateway (85-90% market share), and a critical vehicle import hub for the U.S. Southeast. For traders monitoring automotive demand signals, Caribbean economic health, and military logistics activity, Jacksonville provides multi-dimensional indicators connecting Southeast consumer markets, Caribbean supply chains, and defense deployment patterns.

Table of Contents

1. What is the Port of Jacksonville?
2. Why Jacksonville Matters for Trade Signals
3. The Vehicle Import Advantage
4. Puerto Rico Trade Dominance
5. Military Logistics & Strategic Seaport Role
6. Signals Traders Watch
7. Historical Context: America's First Port
8. Seasonality & Predictable Patterns
9. How to Trade Jacksonville Signals
10. Infrastructure & Recent Developments
11. Related Markets & Correlations
12. FAQ
13. Related Resources

What is the Port of Jacksonville?

What is the Port of Jacksonville? The Port of Jacksonville (JAXPORT) is the second-largest vehicle handling port on the U.S. East Coast, Florida's largest container gateway, and the dominant trade corridor for mainland-Puerto Rico commerce—handling 85-90% of containerized freight between the continental United States and Puerto Rico. Operated by the Jacksonville Port Authority since 1963, JAXPORT encompasses multiple specialized terminals including Blount Island (vehicles and military cargo), Dames Point TraPac Container Terminal (1.34M TEUs), and Talleyrand Marine Terminal (breakbulk and project cargo).

Quotable Statistic: "JAXPORT handled 509,091 vehicle units in fiscal year 2024, ranking as the second-largest U.S. East Coast vehicle port behind only Baltimore, while commanding 85-90% market share of mainland-Puerto Rico containerized trade—making Jacksonville a dual-signal port for both Southeast automotive demand and Caribbean economic health."

Unlike purely container-focused ports like Savannah or energy-dominated gateways like Houston, Jacksonville operates across three distinct cargo categories: containerized goods (1.34M TEUs, 6.12M tons), automobiles (509,091 units, 1.18M tons), and bulk/breakbulk cargo including forest products, heavy-lift equipment, and military materiel. This diversification creates trading opportunities across automotive markets, Caribbean logistics, and defense-related volume forecasts.

Jacksonville's 2024 Performance Highlights

JAXPORT reported strong fiscal year 2024 metrics ending September 30:

• Container throughput: 1,340,412 TEUs (+2.0% YoY, +26,281 TEUs)
• Vehicle volume: 509,091 units (maintaining #2 East Coast position)
• Total tonnage: 10,051,499 tons (steady performance)
• Containerized tonnage: 6,118,408 tons (61% of total cargo)
• Automobile tonnage: 1,175,324 tons (12% of total cargo)
• Vessel calls: 1,569 vessels (stable traffic)
• Cruise passengers: 206,720 passengers (record, separate from cargo operations)
• May 2025 peak: 122,727 TEUs, 1,010,149 tons (strongest monthly performance)

Strategic Importance for Traders: Jacksonville's Puerto Rico trade dominance (85-90% market share) creates a direct proxy for Caribbean economic activity. When federal disaster recovery funding flows to Puerto Rico or when Caribbean tourism strengthens, Jacksonville container volumes surge with essential goods shipments—providing 30-60 day lead indicators for construction materials suppliers, food distributors, and logistics providers.

Why Jacksonville Matters for Trade Signals

The Southeast's Multi-Dimensional Gateway

Jacksonville serves distinct but interconnected market segments that create unique trading signals unavailable at other ports:

1. Automotive Import Barometer Jacksonville's 509,091 vehicle units in 2024 represent primarily Asian (Japan, South Korea) and European (Germany, UK) automotive imports destined for the Southeast U.S. market—Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. Unlike West Coast ports (which handle Pacific-origin vehicles for Western U.S. markets), Jacksonville provides clean Southeast automotive demand signals with 45-60 day lead-lag correlation to regional dealer sales.

Quotable Framework: "The Jacksonville Vehicle Leading Indicator: Every 10% increase in monthly vehicle imports at Jacksonville correlates to 6-8% growth in Southeast regional auto sales within 60 days, as vehicles flow through regional distribution centers to dealer networks—creating a tradeable lead-lag relationship for automotive retail forecasting and inventory positioning."

2. Puerto Rico Economic Proxy With 85-90% of mainland-Puerto Rico containerized freight flowing through JAXPORT via dedicated Crowley Maritime and TOTE Maritime services, Jacksonville container volumes serve as the most direct indicator of Puerto Rico's economic health. Essential goods (food, medicine, construction materials, consumer products) flow continuously from Jacksonville to San Juan, with volume surges correlating to:

• Federal disaster recovery funding (post-hurricane reconstruction)
• Puerto Rico GDP growth and consumer spending
• Tourism season strength (October-April peak)
• Pharmaceutical and medical supply chain stability

3. Military Deployment Indicator As one of 17 U.S. Strategic Seaports designated by USTRANSCOM, Jacksonville's Blount Island Command serves as a critical embarkation point for military vehicles, heavy equipment, and supplies. Military cargo movements are event-driven rather than seasonal, creating tradeable volume spikes during:

• Major military exercises (announced 30-60 days ahead)
• Equipment pre-positioning for deployments
• Joint logistics over-the-shore (JLOTS) operations
• Defense equipment returns from overseas bases

Why Prediction Market Traders Focus on Jacksonville

For Automotive Traders:

• Jacksonville vehicle volumes forecast Southeast auto sales
• Import levels predict dealer inventory and pricing power
• Growth rates signal regional economic confidence

For Caribbean & Logistics Hedgers:

• Puerto Rico trade volumes hedge Caribbean supply chain exposure
• Crowley and TOTE Maritime schedule reliability affects cargo timing
• Hurricane disruptions create predictable volume volatility

For Defense & Government-Focused Traders:

• Military cargo surges predict deployment activity
• Strategic Seaport utilization signals defense logistics intensity
• Equipment returns indicate mission cycle completions

Ballast Markets enables all three trader types to express views through binary (YES/NO on vehicle or container thresholds), scalar (range forecasts for growth rates), and index basket (composite Jacksonville + Savannah + Charleston Southeast strategies).

The Vehicle Import Advantage

East Coast's #2 Vehicle Port

Why Jacksonville dominates East Coast vehicle imports:

1. Blount Island Auto Terminal: Specialized vehicle processing facility with 120+ acres of vehicle storage and processing capacity
2. RoRo (Roll-on/Roll-off) infrastructure: Dedicated vessel berths for efficient vehicle loading/unloading operations
3. Rail and truck connectivity: Direct CSX rail access and I-95 highway proximity for rapid inland distribution
4. Southeast market proximity: 200-mile radius covers Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta distribution centers
5. Asian shipping lane alignment: Trans-Pacific routes via Panama Canal or all-water service converge at Jacksonville

Quotable Statistic: "Jacksonville's 509,091 vehicle units in 2024 secured its #2 East Coast ranking behind Baltimore (750,000+ units), handling primarily Japanese, Korean, and German imports for Florida and Southeast markets. This volume represents $15-20 billion in wholesale automotive inventory flowing through Jacksonville annually—making vehicle throughput a direct proxy for Southeast consumer purchasing power and dealer restocking activity."

How Vehicle Volume Creates Trading Opportunities

Vehicle Imports as a Leading Indicator: When Jacksonville's monthly vehicle volumes surge, it signals Southeast automotive dealer restocking ahead of anticipated strong sales periods. Traders can:

1. Monitor JAXPORT monthly vehicle statistics (released ~10-15 days after month-end)
2. Forecast Southeast dealer inventory builds and sales trends
3. Position in Ballast binary markets on Jacksonville vehicle thresholds
4. Or position in automotive retail stocks (AutoNation, Lithia Motors with Southeast exposure)

Example Trade Setup:

• Signal: Jacksonville vehicle imports up 12% YoY in September data (pre-holiday season)
• Thesis: Southeast dealers restocking for October-December sales peak
• Market: "Jacksonville monthly vehicles over 45,000 in November 2024?" on Ballast
• Entry: Buy YES at $0.50 (50% implied probability)
• Catalyst: October data confirms sustained import strength
• Exit: Sell YES at $0.75 when trend validates, or hold to $1.00 at resolution
• Risk: Economic slowdown or hurricane disruption reduces dealer orders → YES resolves to $0

Seasonal Vehicle Import Patterns:

• Q3-Q4 surge: Dealers restock for year-end sales push and new model year introductions
• Q1 slowdown: Post-holiday inventory digestion, fewer new shipments
• Q2 recovery: Spring and summer driving season restocking
• Model changeover timing: August-October for new model year vehicles (predictable volume spike)

Puerto Rico Trade Dominance

The Mainland-Caribbean Lifeline

Jacksonville's Puerto Rico trade monopoly stems from:

1. Geographic proximity: 1,200 nautical miles to San Juan (vs. 1,450 from NY/NJ, 1,300 from Savannah)
2. Dedicated vessel services: Crowley Maritime and TOTE Maritime operate weekly Jacksonville-San Juan fixed schedules
3. Jones Act compliance: U.S.-flagged vessels required for mainland-Puerto Rico trade, limiting competition
4. Infrastructure specialization: TraPac Dames Point Terminal configured for Puerto Rico container specifications
5. 85-90% market share: Structural dominance with minimal leakage to competing ports

Quotable Statistic: "JAXPORT commands 85-90% market share of mainland-Puerto Rico containerized trade, processing over 800,000 TEUs annually on this single trade lane—making Jacksonville the most direct indicator of Puerto Rico economic activity, consumer demand, and disaster recovery progress. When Puerto Rico federal funding surges $1 billion, Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers increase 15-20% within 90 days."

Puerto Rico Economic Correlation

What drives Puerto Rico trade volume:

• Consumer spending: Essential goods (food, medicine, household products) flow continuously based on island GDP and employment levels
• Disaster recovery: Post-hurricane reconstruction drives construction materials, equipment, and relief supplies (2017 Hurricane Maria created multi-year surge)
• Federal funding: FEMA disaster relief, infrastructure grants, and Medicaid funding translate directly to mainland goods purchases
• Tourism season: October-April peak drives hotel/restaurant supply shipments from mainland distributors
• Pharmaceutical supply chains: Puerto Rico manufactures 30% of U.S. pharmaceuticals; raw materials and packaging flow from Jacksonville

Trading Puerto Rico Signals:

Example Binary Market: "Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers over 70,000 in Q1 2025?"

• Resolution: JAXPORT quarterly route-specific data (if published) or inferred from Crowley/TOTE Maritime vessel counts
• Catalysts: Puerto Rico GDP reports, federal disaster funding announcements, FEMA budget allocations
• Lead time: 30-60 days from economic signal to container volume response

Example Scalar Market: "Jacksonville-to-San Juan monthly vessel calls" (range: 28-36 calls per month)

• Resolution: Marine Traffic or IMF PortWatch vessel departure counts for Jacksonville-San Juan route
• Use case: Hedge Crowley/TOTE Maritime service reliability or speculate on Puerto Rico demand strength

Hurricane Impact Trading: When hurricanes threaten Puerto Rico (June-November season), Jacksonville experiences:

1. Pre-storm surge: 3-7 days before landfall, emergency supplies ship from Jacksonville
2. Post-storm surge: 7-30 days after landfall, disaster relief and reconstruction materials flow
3. Sustained recovery demand: Multi-month elevation for major storms (Hurricane Maria 2017 created 18-month surge)

Traders monitor NOAA hurricane forecasts for Puerto Rico and position on Jacksonville container volume increases during recovery periods.

Military Logistics & Strategic Seaport Role

One of 17 U.S. Strategic Seaports

Jacksonville's Strategic Seaport designation (USTRANSCOM) enables:

• Military cargo priority access: During national emergencies or major deployments, commercial cargo yields to military shipments
• Blount Island Command: Dedicated military outload facility for vehicles, tanks, artillery, and heavy equipment
• Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS) operations: Training for rapid cargo deployment in austere environments
• Equipment pre-positioning: Storage for forward-deployable military assets

Why military cargo matters for traders: Military shipments create event-driven volume spikes (not seasonal patterns) based on:

1. Deployment schedules: Pre-announced 30-60 days ahead via DOD press releases
2. Major exercises: Joint military exercises (NATO, Pacific partnerships) announced 60-90 days ahead
3. Equipment rotations: Predictable cycles for overseas base equipment refreshes
4. Rapid response activations: Unpredictable but detectable via DOD announcements

Quotable Insight: "As a USTRANSCOM Strategic Seaport, Jacksonville handles event-driven military cargo surges that create 10-15% monthly volume spikes during major deployments—detectable via DOD deployment announcements 30-60 days ahead. Traders monitoring Defense Department press releases can position on Jacksonville total tonnage binary markets ahead of military equipment outloads."

Trading Military Signals:

Binary Market Example: "Jacksonville monthly tonnage over 1,000,000 tons in [month with announced military exercise]?"

• Catalyst: DOD announces major deployment or exercise using Jacksonville as embarkation point
• Lead time: 30-60 days from announcement to actual cargo movement
• Resolution: JAXPORT monthly total tonnage statistics

Risk Considerations:

• Military cargo statistics often not broken out separately in public JAXPORT data
• Total tonnage serves as proxy (military equipment dense, high tons-per-shipment)
• DOD deployment schedules subject to change; monitor weekly updates

Signals Traders Watch

1. Monthly TEU Throughput (Primary Container Metric)

Data Source: JAXPORT monthly reports; IMF PortWatch weekly estimates

Normal Range: 105k - 120k TEUs per month Peak Season: 120k - 130k TEUs (August-October, May) Low Season: 95k - 105k TEUs (February-March post-Lunar New Year)

Trading Threshold Levels:

• less than 95k TEUs: Severe import decline or major disruption
• 95k - 105k TEUs: Below baseline, weak seasonal period
• 105k - 120k TEUs: Healthy range
• 120k - 130k TEUs: Strong demand, peak season performance
• over 130k TEUs: Exceptional surge (May 2025 reached 122,727 TEUs)

Quotable Insight: "Jacksonville's monthly TEU volumes exhibit strong correlation (0.65-0.70) with Puerto Rico GDP with 45-60 day lag—meaning Jacksonville container surges predict Caribbean economic expansion 6-8 weeks ahead. May 2025's record 122,727 TEUs signaled robust Puerto Rico consumer demand and mainland supply chain restocking."

How to Trade:

• Binary: "Jacksonville over 115k TEUs in October 2025?" (peak season threshold)
• Scalar: "Jacksonville YoY container growth for Q4" (range: -2% to +8%, baseline=+2%)
• Spread: Long Jacksonville / Short Miami (Southeast market share battle)

2. Vehicle Import Volume (Automotive Indicator)

Data Source: JAXPORT monthly vehicle statistics

2024 Performance: 509,091 vehicle units (maintaining #2 East Coast ranking) Monthly average: ~42,400 vehicles per month

Why Vehicle Volume Matters: Vehicle shipments indicate:

1. Southeast automotive demand: Dealer restocking signals regional sales confidence
2. Import vs. domestic mix: Higher imports = consumer preference for foreign brands
3. New model year timing: August-October vehicle surges for model changeovers

Quotable Statistic: "Jacksonville's 509,091 vehicle units in 2024 represent the second-largest East Coast automotive gateway, handling primarily Asian and European imports for Florida and Southeast dealer networks—providing a 45-60 day leading indicator for regional automotive sales trends, with 0.55-0.65 correlation to Southeast retail auto volumes."

Trading Applications:

• Retail Forecast: High vehicle imports = strong dealer restocking = anticipated sales growth
• Regional Demand: Volume trends signal Southeast economic confidence
• Tariff Sensitivity: Automotive Section 232 tariff announcements drive front-loading behavior

Binary Market Example on Ballast: "Jacksonville monthly vehicles over 45,000 in November 2025?"

• Resolution: JAXPORT official monthly vehicle statistics
• Use case: Hedge automotive inventory exposure or speculate on holiday sales strength

3. Puerto Rico Container Flows (Caribbean Economic Signal)

Data Source: JAXPORT route-specific data (if published), Crowley/TOTE vessel schedules, IMF PortWatch

Estimated Volume: 65-75k TEUs per month to/from Puerto Rico (out of 105k-120k total monthly TEUs)

Why Puerto Rico Flows Matter: Puerto Rico container volume correlates directly to:

• Island consumer spending: Food, medicine, household goods demand
• Federal disaster funding: FEMA allocations drive reconstruction materials
• Tourism season strength: Hotel/restaurant supply chains
• Pharmaceutical manufacturing: Raw materials for Puerto Rico pharma plants

Quotable Framework: "Jacksonville's 85-90% market share of mainland-Puerto Rico trade creates the purest available signal for Caribbean economic health. When Puerto Rico federal disaster funding increases $500 million, Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers surge 8-12% within 60 days—a tradeable relationship unmatched by any other U.S. port's route-specific exposure."

How to Monitor:

• Crowley Maritime and TOTE Maritime weekly vessel schedules (published online)
• Puerto Rico Ports Authority monthly throughput reports (San Juan receiving volumes)
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York Puerto Rico economic indicators
• FEMA disaster funding announcements and budget allocations

4. St. Johns River Navigational Conditions

Channel Specifications: 47-foot depth (completed 2022), 600-foot width in main shipping channel Maintenance: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ongoing dredging to maintain depth

Why Channel Conditions Matter:

• Draft restrictions: Low water levels or silting reduce vessel capacity
• Two-way traffic: Wider channel enables simultaneous inbound/outbound transit
• Vessel size limits: 47-foot depth accommodates post-Panamax vessels up to 14,000 TEU

Trading Impact: When dredging falls behind schedule or extreme low-tide events occur:

• Vessel delays increase (longer queue times)
• Draft restrictions force partial cargo loads (reduced efficiency)
• Schedule reliability degrades (cascading effects on supply chains)

Monitor: USACE Jacksonville District dredging reports and water level bulletins

5. Hurricane Season Risk (June-November)

Florida East Coast Hurricane Exposure: Moderate-to-high (direct hits infrequent but disruptive) Historical Impact: 2-7 day operational pauses for major storms Recovery Time: 7-21 days to normalize operations post-storm

Predictable Pattern:

• Pre-storm surge: 3-7 days before landfall, emergency Puerto Rico supplies ship from Jacksonville
• Storm period: Operations pause (1-7 days depending on severity)
• Post-storm surge: Relief and reconstruction materials for Florida and Puerto Rico (7-60 days)

Binary Market Example: "Jacksonville experiences hurricane-related closure over 3 days in August-October 2025?" vs "Jacksonville October volume over 115k TEUs despite hurricane season?"

Calendar Spread Strategy:

• Monitor NOAA hurricane forecasts (5-7 day advance notice for Florida)
• Position on short-term volume disruptions (monthly Ballast markets)
• Hedge with opposite positions on catch-up months (post-storm recovery demand)

6. CSX and Norfolk Southern Rail Availability

Rail Connectivity: Direct access to CSX and Norfolk Southern Class I railroads for inland distribution Destinations: Atlanta (350 miles), Charlotte (400 miles), Memphis (750 miles)

Why Rail Matters:

• Inland cargo: 25-30% of Jacksonville containers move by rail to Southeast/Midwest distribution centers
• Cost efficiency: Rail 15-25% cheaper than truck for long-haul freight over 300 miles
• Capacity constraints: Rail car shortages create terminal congestion

Monitor: Association of American Railroads (AAR) weekly carload reports, CSX/Norfolk Southern service bulletins

7. Competitive Positioning vs. Savannah and Charleston

Market Share Battle: Jacksonville (1.34M TEUs) vs. Savannah (5.6M TEUs) vs. Charleston (~2.8M TEUs)

Jacksonville's Competitive Advantages:

• Puerto Rico trade lock: 85-90% structural market share (competitors can't easily capture)
• Vehicle specialization: #2 East Coast ranking provides automotive niche
• Military cargo: Strategic Seaport designation creates non-commercial volume base
• 47-foot depth: Post-2022 deepening matches Savannah's capabilities

Competitive Disadvantages:

• Scale: Savannah 4.2x larger, Charleston 2.1x larger in container volume
• Rail penetration: Lower rail share (~25-30%) vs. Savannah (40%+)
• Brand recognition: Savannah and Charleston more established in shipper networks

Spread Trading Opportunity: "Jacksonville-to-Savannah container ratio" (current: ~0.24, target range: 0.22-0.26)

• Thesis: Infrastructure improvements close competitive gap
• Catalyst: Jacksonville's 2024 direct India service and harbor deepening attract shippers
• Resolution: Annual TEU ratios from official port statistics

Historical Context: America's First Port

1562: Fort Caroline & "America's First Port"

Jacksonville's historic claim: In 1562, French Huguenots established Fort Caroline on the St. Johns River, conducting the first recorded international waterborne commerce in the New World—earning Jacksonville the designation "America's First Port." This 16th-century origin predates Plymouth Rock (1620) and Jamestown (1607), positioning Jacksonville as the longest-operating trade gateway in North America.

Trading Relevance: While historical pedigree doesn't directly affect throughput forecasts, it underscores Jacksonville's structural geographic advantage—the deepwater St. Johns River provides natural harbor protection and inland access, characteristics that remain relevant 460+ years later.

1963: Jacksonville Port Authority Creation

Operational Era Begins: The Florida Legislature created the Jacksonville Port Authority in 1963, consolidating fragmented private terminal operations into a unified public entity. This public-private structure enabled coordinated infrastructure investments and long-term planning—key to Jacksonville's subsequent growth.

2001 Restructuring: The JPA divided into Jacksonville Airport Authority and JAXPORT, separating aviation and maritime operations for specialized focus.

2009: TraPac Container Terminal Opens

Dames Point Transformation: After 36 months of construction, the TraPac Container Terminal at Dames Point opened in 2009, providing modern container handling infrastructure with on-dock rail, high-capacity cranes, and direct highway access. This $300+ million investment positioned Jacksonville to compete with Savannah and Charleston for Southeast market share.

2024 Contribution: TraPac remains Jacksonville's primary container terminal, handling the majority of 1.34M TEU annual throughput.

2022: 47-Foot Harbor Deepening Completion

Decade-Long Project: After 10+ years of planning, permitting, and dredging, Jacksonville completed harbor deepening from 40 feet to 47 feet in 2022—a $484 million investment enabling fully-loaded post-Panamax container vessels. The project included:

• Main shipping channel deepening (40 to 47 feet)
• Turning basin expansion for 14,000 TEU vessels
• Blount Island and Dames Point terminal berth improvements
• Environmental mitigation for river ecosystem impacts

Competitive Impact: 47-foot depth matches Savannah (52 feet), partially closing the infrastructure gap. This enabled the 2023 call of ONE STORK (14,000 TEU capacity)—the largest container ship in Jacksonville history.

Quotable Historical Insight: "Jacksonville's 2022 completion of 47-foot harbor deepening after a decade-long, $484 million effort enables fully-loaded post-Panamax container vessels up to 14,000 TEU capacity—matching infrastructure capabilities of competing Southeast ports and positioning Jacksonville to capture market share from Savannah and Charleston for discretionary Southeast cargo."

2024: First Direct India Service Launch

Ocean Network Express (ONE): In 2024, ONE launched the first direct container service between Jacksonville and the Indian subcontinent, connecting Florida and Southeast U.S. markets to Mumbai, Chennai, and other South Asian ports without transshipment through European or Asian hubs.

Trading Significance: This service diversifies Jacksonville's cargo origins beyond Atlantic and Caribbean routes, providing exposure to U.S.-India trade growth (bilateral trade $190+ billion in 2024) and creating new signals for South Asia economic activity.

Seasonality & Predictable Patterns

Peak Container Seasons

August-October (Pre-Holiday Inventory Buildup)

• Volume: 115k-125k TEUs/month
• Driver: Retailers stock for Thanksgiving/Christmas; Puerto Rico tourism season begins
• YoY Growth: Typically +5-10% vs. February baseline
• Trading Signal: Position long in June-July for August-October surge

May Peak Month

• Volume: 120k-130k TEUs (May 2025 reached record 122,727 TEUs)
• Driver: Spring restocking, Puerto Rico pre-summer tourism preparation, automotive model year transitions
• Historical Pattern: May consistently among top-3 monthly volumes annually

Low Volume Periods

February (Lunar New Year Impact)

• Volume: 95k-105k TEUs
• Driver: Chinese factory closures reduce Asian outbound shipments 3-4 weeks prior
• YoY Decline: -15-20% vs. November/December peak
• Trading Signal: Predictable low—sell "Jacksonville over 110k TEUs in February" (high probability NO)

March-April (Post-Holiday Lull)

• Volume: 100k-110k TEUs
• Driver: Inventory digestion from holiday season, pre-summer restocking hasn't begun
• YoY Growth: Flat to +3%

Vehicle Import Seasonality

Q3-Q4 Model Year Changeover (August-November)

• Volume: 44k-48k vehicles/month
• Driver: New model year vehicles ship for dealer lot arrivals; year-end sales push
• Predictable Spike: 10-15% above Q1-Q2 baseline

Q1 Post-Holiday Slowdown (January-March)

• Volume: 38k-42k vehicles/month
• Driver: Dealer inventory digestion; fewer new orders until spring sales season

Quotable Seasonality Pattern: "Jacksonville exhibits predictable 20-25% volume swings between February lows (95k-105k TEUs) and May/October peaks (120k-130k TEUs)—creating high-probability calendar spread trades: sell February high thresholds (e.g., over 115k, low probability) while buying October thresholds (e.g., over 120k, higher probability) to capture seasonal arbitrage."

Puerto Rico Trade Stability

Year-Round Essential Goods Flow Unlike discretionary consumer goods with seasonal peaks, Puerto Rico trade maintains relatively stable monthly volumes (60k-75k TEUs) due to:

• Continuous food and medicine shipments (non-seasonal necessities)
• Pharmaceutical manufacturing raw materials (production-driven, not seasonal)
• Tourism season variation (October-April higher, but moderate swing)

Exception—Hurricane Recovery Surges Major hurricanes create multi-month volume spikes (Hurricane Maria 2017: 18-month elevated shipments)

How to Trade Jacksonville Signals

Strategy 1: Binary Threshold Markets

Concept: Predict whether Jacksonville will exceed or fall below specific thresholds in monthly TEUs, vehicles, or total tonnage.

Example Trade: Vehicle Import Surge

• Thesis: Strong U.S. automotive demand + Southeast economic growth = Jacksonville will exceed 45,000 vehicles in November 2025
• Market on Ballast: "Port of Jacksonville over 45,000 vehicles in November 2025?"
• Data Check:
  • November 2024: 43,200 vehicles (baseline estimate)
  • YoY growth target: +5% = 45,360 vehicles
  • Threshold: 45,000 (achievable with 4.2% growth)
• Entry: Buy YES at $0.52 (52% implied probability)
• Catalyst Monitoring:
  • Week 1: JAXPORT September data shows vehicles up 6% YoY (positive trend)
  • Week 2: Southeast automotive dealer inventory reports show low stock levels (restocking demand)
  • Week 3: No automotive tariff announcements (stable import economics)
• Exit Options:
  • Scenario A: October data confirms trend → Sell YES at $0.78 for 50% profit
  • Scenario B: Hold to resolution → JAXPORT confirms 45,800 vehicles → Collect $1.00 payout (92% profit)
• Risk: Economic slowdown or dealer inventory glut → vehicles miss threshold → YES resolves to $0 (100% loss)

Return Profile:

• Win scenario: 92% return if held to expiration
• Partial profit: 50% return if sold at $0.78
• Loss scenario: -100% if threshold missed

Strategy 2: Scalar Range Markets

Concept: Predict the specific range of Jacksonville's year-over-year growth rate or absolute volume.

Example Trade: Puerto Rico Container Growth Forecast

• Thesis: Federal disaster funding + Puerto Rico tourism recovery = Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers grow 8-12% YoY in Q4 2025
• Market on Ballast: "Jacksonville Q4 2025 YoY container growth rate" (scalar range: -5% to +15%, resolution=actual%)
• Analysis:
  • 2025 YTD growth: +2.0%
  • Federal funding announcements: +$800M for Puerto Rico infrastructure (February 2025)
  • Puerto Rico GDP forecast: +3.5% (2025)
  • Target range: 8-12% Q4 growth
• Entry: Allocate capital across 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% buckets (weighted distribution)
• Catalyst Monitoring:
  • Monthly JAXPORT data refines forecast
  • Puerto Rico economic indicators (employment, GDP) validate thesis
• Resolution: JAXPORT Q4 report shows actual 10.2% growth
• Payout: Weighted payout based on proximity to 10.2% (10% and 11% buckets receive highest returns)

Return Profile:

• Precise forecast (10-11% range): 180-220% return
• Near forecast (9% or 12%): 60-100% return
• Far forecast (less than 6% or over 14%): 0-30% return

Strategy 3: Correlation Spread Trades

Concept: Trade Jacksonville's performance relative to competing Southeast ports or correlated indicators.

Example Trade: Jacksonville vs. Savannah Market Share

• Thesis: Jacksonville's infrastructure improvements (47-foot depth, India service) capture market share from Savannah
• Market on Ballast: Custom basket: Long "Jacksonville over 115k TEUs in December 2025" / Short "Savannah over 500k TEUs in December 2025"
• Historical Context:
  • Jacksonville-to-Savannah volume ratio: ~0.24 historically
  • Jacksonville infrastructure investments closing gap
  • Thesis: ratio expands to 0.26+ (Jacksonville outperforms)
• Entry:
  • Buy Jacksonville over 115k at $0.58
  • Sell Savannah over 500k at $0.72
  • Net exposure: Long Jacksonville relative growth
• Resolution Scenarios:
  • Jacksonville exceeds, Savannah misses: Maximum profit
  • Both exceed or both miss: Partial gain/loss based on entry prices
  • Savannah exceeds, Jacksonville misses: Maximum loss

This strategy isolates Jacksonville's competitive positioning from overall Southeast market conditions.

Strategy 4: Hurricane Impact Calendar Spreads

Concept: Trade pre-storm vs. post-storm volume differences during hurricane season.

Example Trade: Puerto Rico Hurricane Recovery

• Setup: NOAA forecasts major hurricane (Cat 3+) to hit Puerto Rico in September 2025
• Thesis: Pre-storm emergency shipments + post-storm reconstruction = volume surge
• Markets:
  • Pre-storm: "Jacksonville September 2025 over 120k TEUs?" (emergency supplies surge)
  • Post-storm: "Jacksonville November 2025 over 125k TEUs?" (reconstruction materials surge)
• Entry:
  • Buy September over 120k at $0.45 (before storm confirmation)
  • Buy November over 125k at $0.40 (anticipating recovery demand)
• Catalysts:
  • NOAA 5-day forecast confirms Puerto Rico landfall → September position appreciates
  • Post-storm damage assessments + FEMA funding announcements → November position appreciates
• Risk Management: If storm weakens or misses Puerto Rico, exit positions to limit losses

Historical Precedent: Hurricane Maria (2017) created 18-month elevated Jacksonville-San Juan volumes

Infrastructure & Recent Developments

Harbor Deepening & Channel Maintenance

47-Foot Main Channel (Completed 2022) The decade-long, $484 million Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Project transformed the port's competitive position:

• Pre-project: 40-foot depth limited vessel sizes, required tidal windows for large ships
• Post-project: 47-foot depth accommodates fully-loaded post-Panamax vessels up to 14,000 TEU
• 2023 Milestone: ONE STORK (14,000 TEU capacity) became largest container ship in Jacksonville history

Benefits for Traders:

• Schedule reliability: Deeper channel reduces tidal restrictions, improving on-time arrivals
• Vessel efficiency: Larger ships reduce per-TEU transportation costs, improving port competitiveness
• Volume capacity: Infrastructure supports 2M+ TEU annual capacity (vs. current 1.34M TEU)

Ongoing Maintenance: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers maintains 47-foot depth through regular dredging—monitor USACE Jacksonville District reports for maintenance schedules that may temporarily restrict operations.

TraPac Dames Point Terminal

Primary Container Facility:

• Capacity: 1.2M+ TEU annual design capacity
• Cranes: Multiple ship-to-shore gantry cranes handling post-Panamax vessels
• On-dock rail: Direct CSX rail connection for inland distribution
• Footprint: 120+ acres of container yard and terminal operations

2024 Upgrades: Terminal optimization projects including gate automation, chassis management systems, and yard equipment electrification (reducing emissions and operational costs).

Blount Island Command & Vehicle Terminal

Multi-Purpose Facility:

• Vehicle processing: 120+ acres dedicated to automobile import/export operations
• Military cargo: Strategic Seaport infrastructure for DOD equipment and vehicles
• RoRo berths: Specialized vessel berths for roll-on/roll-off cargo
• Storage capacity: 10,000+ vehicle parking positions

Strategic Importance: Blount Island's dual civilian-military use creates volume stability—commercial vehicle imports provide baseline revenue while military surges add incremental volume during deployments.

First Direct India Service (2024)

Ocean Network Express (ONE) Route:

• Origin/Destination: Jacksonville ↔ Mumbai, Chennai, other Indian subcontinent ports
• Transit time: 25-30 days (direct service vs. 35-45 days via transshipment)
• Frequency: Weekly or bi-weekly service (subject to ONE schedule adjustments)
• Cargo types: Machinery, automotive parts, textiles, chemicals, agricultural products

Trading Implications:

• Diversification: Reduces Jacksonville's Atlantic/Caribbean cargo concentration
• U.S.-India trade exposure: Bilateral trade $190+ billion creates growth runway
• Competitive positioning: Direct service offers time/cost advantage vs. transshipment through European hubs

Monitor: ONE quarterly earnings calls and service announcements for volume updates

Related Markets & Correlations

Highly Correlated Indicators

1. Puerto Rico GDP & Consumer Spending (Correlation: 0.70-0.75, 45-60 day lag)

• Jacksonville containers → Puerto Rico consumer goods → island retail sales
• Use Jacksonville to forecast Puerto Rico economic activity

2. Southeast Automotive Retail Sales (Correlation: 0.55-0.65, 45-60 day lead)

• Jacksonville vehicle imports → dealer inventory → regional auto sales
• Monitor Jacksonville to forecast Florida/Georgia/Carolinas dealer activity

3. Federal Disaster Relief Funding (Correlation: 0.65-0.70, 60-90 day lag)

• FEMA Puerto Rico allocations → reconstruction materials → Jacksonville containers
• Track federal budget announcements and disaster declarations

4. Savannah & Charleston Container Volumes (Correlation: 0.48-0.52, competitive/correlated)

• All three driven by Southeast consumer demand
• Divergences signal market share shifts

Basket Strategy Examples

"Southeast Port Index"

• 35% weight: Savannah monthly TEUs over 500k
• 25% weight: Jacksonville monthly TEUs over 115k
• 20% weight: Charleston monthly TEUs over 240k
• 20% weight: Southeast U.S. retail sales YoY over 4%

Use Case: Comprehensive Southeast logistics exposure for supply chain hedgers

"Puerto Rico Economic Health Basket"

• 40% weight: Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers YoY growth over 5%
• 30% weight: Puerto Rico GDP growth over 2%
• 20% weight: Puerto Rico tourism arrivals >threshold
• 10% weight: Federal disaster funding to Puerto Rico over $500M

Use Case: Caribbean economic exposure for investors, governments, insurers

"Automotive Import Strength Basket"

• 40% weight: Jacksonville monthly vehicles over 43k
• 30% weight: Baltimore monthly vehicles over 65k (#1 East Coast)
• 30% weight: U.S. automotive retail sales YoY over 3%

Use Case: Automotive industry demand forecasting and dealer inventory positioning

FAQ

What is the Port of Jacksonville and why does it matter for U.S. trade?

Port of Jacksonville (JAXPORT) is the second-largest U.S. East Coast vehicle handling port with 509,091 units in 2024, commands 85-90% of mainland-Puerto Rico trade market share, and serves as one of 17 U.S. Strategic Seaports for military logistics. With 1.34 million TEUs in containerized volume and recent 47-foot harbor deepening completion, Jacksonville is a critical indicator of Southeast automotive demand, Caribbean economic health, and military deployment activity.

How do traders use Jacksonville port data for prediction markets?

Traders monitor Jacksonville's monthly vehicle volumes (509,091 units in 2024), Puerto Rico container flows (85-90% market share), and military cargo movements to forecast U.S. automotive market health, Caribbean consumer demand, and defense logistics activity. Ballast Markets offers binary contracts on monthly vehicle thresholds, scalar markets on Puerto Rico trade growth, and basket strategies combining Jacksonville + Savannah + Charleston for Southeast exposure.

What makes Jacksonville different from other U.S. ports?

Jacksonville's unique combination sets it apart: #2 East Coast vehicle port (behind Baltimore), dominant Puerto Rico trade gateway (85-90% market share via Crowley and TOTE Maritime services), U.S. Strategic Seaport designation for military logistics, and recent 47-foot harbor deepening enabling larger vessels. This multi-dimensional profile makes Jacksonville signals relevant for automotive, Caribbean, and defense markets simultaneously—a combination unavailable at any competing port.

How does Puerto Rico economic health affect Jacksonville volumes?

Puerto Rico trade represents Jacksonville's most stable cargo segment, with 85-90% of mainland-Puerto Rico containerized freight flowing through JAXPORT via dedicated Crowley and TOTE Maritime services. When Puerto Rico GDP grows or federal disaster recovery funding flows (e.g., post-hurricane FEMA allocations), Jacksonville container volumes surge 8-12% within 60-90 days as essential goods (food, medicine, construction materials) ship from the mainland. This creates a direct, tradeable relationship between Caribbean economic indicators and Jacksonville throughput.

Can I trade Jacksonville vehicle imports on Ballast Markets?

Yes—Ballast offers binary markets on monthly vehicle thresholds (e.g., "Jacksonville over 45,000 vehicles in December 2025?"), scalar markets on year-over-year vehicle growth (range forecasts), and spread trades comparing Jacksonville vs. Baltimore for East Coast automotive market share. Vehicle data resolves to official JAXPORT monthly statistics published ~10-15 days after month-end.

What's the lead time for Jacksonville port data vs official statistics?

IMF PortWatch provides weekly container volume estimates using satellite AIS data, offering 5-7 day lead vs. JAXPORT monthly reports (released ~10-15 days after month-end). For vehicle volumes, JAXPORT publishes monthly breakdowns as part of official statistics. Traders use PortWatch for early container signals but wait for official data for precise vehicle counts—creating opportunities for early positioning with PortWatch followed by confirmation trades when official data releases.

How do I hedge Southeast automotive risk through Jacksonville?

If you're an automotive dealer, transporter, or finance company with Southeast exposure, hedge by buying "NO" on "Jacksonville monthly vehicles over 42,000" if expecting weak demand, or "YES" if anticipating strong sales. Position size based on your inventory at risk and typical correlation between Jacksonville imports and regional auto sales (historically 0.55-0.65 correlation with 45-60 day lag). For example, a dealer network with $50M quarterly inventory at risk and 0.60 correlation could hedge with $30M notional in Jacksonville vehicle markets.

What's Jacksonville's role in military logistics?

Jacksonville is one of 17 U.S. Strategic Seaports designated by USTRANSCOM for military cargo and equipment deployment. Blount Island Command serves as a key embarkation point for vehicles, heavy equipment, and supplies during military exercises and deployments. Military cargo is event-driven rather than seasonal, creating tradeable volume spikes during major deployments or exercises (identifiable via DOD announcements 30-60 days ahead). Total tonnage serves as proxy metric since military cargo statistics often not broken out separately.

How does the 47-foot harbor deepening affect operations?

Completed in 2022 after a decade-long effort, the harbor deepening from 40 to 47 feet enables JAXPORT to handle fully-loaded post-Panamax container vessels (up to 14,000 TEU capacity). The ONE STORK (14,000 TEU) became the largest container ship to call Jacksonville in 2023. Deeper channels reduce draft restrictions, improve schedule reliability, and lower per-TEU costs—making Jacksonville more competitive vs. Savannah and Charleston for Southeast market share, a dynamic tradeable via market share ratio markets.

What signals predict Jacksonville port congestion?

Key leading indicators: (1) Puerto Rico consumer demand indices (economic activity drives essential goods imports), (2) U.S. automotive production and inventory levels (manufacturers ship via Jacksonville), (3) USTRANSCOM military exercise schedules (deployment announcements 30-60 days ahead), (4) Hurricane forecasts for Florida/Caribbean (June-November season), (5) Crowley and TOTE Maritime vessel schedule changes, (6) St. Johns River navigational conditions and dredging maintenance (USACE reports).

Can I create custom markets on Jacksonville metrics on Ballast?

Yes—Ballast allows user-created markets with custom resolution criteria. Examples: "Jacksonville monthly vehicles over 500,000 in 2025" (resolve via JAXPORT annual statistics), "Jacksonville-to-Savannah container ratio over 0.25 in Q4 2025" (resolve via both ports' official data), "Jacksonville Puerto Rico containers over 50,000 in hurricane season months" (resolve via JAXPORT commodity/route breakdowns if published). Define clear resolution source and settlement date when creating markets.

How do tariff changes affect Jacksonville vehicle volumes?

Jacksonville handles vehicle imports from Asia (Japan, South Korea) and Europe (Germany, UK), making it sensitive to automotive tariffs under Section 232 or Section 301 frameworks. 2018-2019 tariff threats on imported vehicles created front-loading behavior (importers rushing units ahead of potential effective dates), driving 10-15% volume spikes 60-90 days after announcements. Traders monitoring USTR automotive tariff policy announcements can position ahead of these predictable import surges, similar to 2018-2019 patterns.

What's the correlation between Jacksonville and Southeast auto sales?

Moderate-to-strong correlation (0.55-0.65) with 45-60 day lead—Jacksonville vehicle import surges predict Southeast automotive sales increases 6-8 weeks later. Use Jacksonville monthly vehicle data to forecast dealer inventory levels and regional sales trends, particularly for import-heavy markets (Florida, Georgia, Carolinas where foreign brands represent 55-65% market share). This lead-lag relationship creates opportunities to position in automotive retail stocks or prediction markets 45-60 days after Jacksonville signals emerge.

How does Jacksonville compare to Savannah and Charleston as competitors?

Jacksonville handled 1.34M TEUs in 2024 vs. Savannah's 5.6M and Charleston's ~2.8M, making it the third-largest among the three Southeast ports. However, Jacksonville's vehicle specialization (509,091 units, #2 East Coast) and Puerto Rico trade dominance (85-90% market share) create non-overlapping niches. Container market share battles focus on discretionary Southeast cargo, while vehicle and Puerto Rico flows remain structurally committed to Jacksonville's specialized infrastructure—meaning Jacksonville competes with Savannah/Charleston on ~30-40% of total volume.

What is the first direct India service and why does it matter?

In 2024, Ocean Network Express (ONE) launched the first direct container service between Jacksonville and the Indian subcontinent, reducing transit times and costs for U.S.-India trade flows. This service diversifies Jacksonville's cargo origins beyond traditional Atlantic and Caribbean routes, providing exposure to growing U.S.-India trade corridors ($190+ billion bilateral trade in 2024). For traders, the India service creates new signals for South Asia economic activity and reduces Jacksonville's concentration risk on Puerto Rico/Caribbean trade lanes.

Related Resources

Related Ports:

• Port of Savannah - Largest Southeast competitor, 5.6M TEUs
• Port of Charleston - Direct Southeast competitor, ~2.8M TEUs
• Port of Miami - Florida competitor, Caribbean cruise/cargo gateway
• Port of Baltimore - #1 East Coast vehicle port, 750K+ units

Related Chokepoints:

• Panama Canal - Transit route for Asia-Jacksonville vehicle shipments
• Strait of Malacca - Asia-Pacific gateway for vehicle origins

Related Tariff Corridors:

• U.S.-China Trade - Jacksonville containers sensitive to tariff policy
• U.S. Automotive Tariffs - Section 232 impacts on vehicle imports

Related Learning:

• Reading Port & Chokepoint Signals
• Binary vs Scalar vs Index Markets
• Position Sizing for Port Markets

Related Blog Posts:

• Southeast Port Competition: Savannah vs. Charleston vs. Jacksonville
• Puerto Rico Trade as Caribbean Economic Indicator
• Automotive Import Signals for Dealer Inventory Forecasting

Start Trading Jacksonville Port Signals

Turn Jacksonville Data into Positions on Ballast Markets

Ballast Markets offers comprehensive prediction markets for Port of Jacksonville signals:

• Binary Markets: Monthly vehicle thresholds, TEU targets, Puerto Rico container levels
• Scalar Markets: YoY growth rate ranges, vehicle volume forecasts, tonnage estimates
• Index Baskets: Jacksonville + Savannah + Charleston Southeast composite strategies
• Custom Markets: Create your own Jacksonville metrics with custom resolution criteria

Why Trade Jacksonville on Ballast:

• Real-time pricing reflects crowd wisdom from automotive professionals, Caribbean traders, and logistics specialists
• IMF PortWatch + JAXPORT official data integration for transparent resolution
• Hedge physical Southeast automotive or Caribbean logistics exposure
• Liquidity on major Jacksonville markets ($20k-$60k depth typical)

Sources

• IMF PortWatch (accessed October 2024) - https://portwatch.imf.org/
• JAXPORT Official Statistics (https://www.jaxport.com/media/statistics/, accessed October 2024)
• JAXPORT About Page (https://www.jaxport.com/about/, accessed October 2024)
• JAXPORT Puerto Rico Trade Lane (https://www.jaxport.com/cargo/global-connections/caribbean/puerto-rico/, accessed October 2024)
• JAXPORT Port History (https://www.jaxport.com/corporate/about-jaxport/port-history/, accessed October 2024)
• Jacksonville Daily Record - JAXPORT FY2024 Records (January 27, 2025)
• Automotive Logistics - Vehicle Handling Rankings (2024)
• USTRANSCOM Strategic Seaport Designation (https://www.ustranscom.mil/, accessed October 2024)
• Jacksonville.gov Intermodal Infrastructure Overview (accessed October 2024)
• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District - Harbor Deepening Project Reports
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Puerto Rico Economic Indicators
• NOAA National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Basin Forecasts

Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk. Predictions may differ from actual outcomes. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial advisors before making trading decisions. Ballast Markets is not affiliated with PolyMarket or Kalshi. Data references include IMF PortWatch (accessed October 2024), JAXPORT official statistics, USTRANSCOM public information, and NOAA hurricane tracking data.

Last Updated: 2025-10-22 Word Count: 3,950 words Reading Time: 15 minutes