Jeddah Islamic Port: Trade Signals & Red Sea Disruption Guide

Jeddah Islamic Port handled 3.7 million TEUs in 2024, down 33% from 5.6 million in 2023 due to Red Sea crisis disruptions, yet remains Saudi Arabia's largest seaport and the gateway for 47% of the Kingdom's trade. For traders tracking Middle East supply chains, Red Sea security, and Saudi economic diversification, Jeddah Port metrics provide critical signals for freight costs, Vision 2030 progress, and geopolitical risk premiums.

Why Jeddah Islamic Port Matters

Jeddah Islamic Port serves as Saudi Arabia's primary maritime gateway on the Red Sea, connecting the Kingdom to global trade routes through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Located 70 kilometers west of Mecca, the port functions as the logistics backbone for Saudi Arabia's 36 million population, processing consumer goods, industrial equipment, and construction materials essential for Vision 2030's economic transformation.

The port's strategic significance extends beyond commerce—it serves as the maritime reception point for Hajj and Umrah pilgrims, with five passenger terminals processing 120,000+ pilgrims annually by sea. During the 2024 Hajj season, Saudi Arabia welcomed 1.8 million international pilgrims, generating $171 billion in religious tourism value and driving predictable import surges 60-90 days before pilgrimage dates for food, textiles, and temporary infrastructure.

In 2024, Jeddah Port handled 47% of Saudi Arabia's total trade volume despite a 33% throughput decline caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The February 2024 completion of Red Sea Gateway Terminal's $1.7 billion expansion increased capacity from 2.5 million to 6.2 million TEUs, positioning the port to recapture market share once regional security stabilizes. The expansion added 11 berths across 1.5 million square meters, 24 ship-to-shore cranes, and deepened channels to 17 meters to accommodate 24,000 TEU mega-vessels.

For prediction market participants, Jeddah Port represents a convergence of geopolitics (Red Sea security), macroeconomics (Saudi non-oil GDP growth hit 4.2% in 2024), and logistics (vessel diversion to Dammam and Cape of Good Hope routing). IMF PortWatch tracks vessel traffic through Bab el-Mandeb and Jeddah anchorage using satellite AIS data, providing daily signals on security conditions, transit times, and throughput recovery trajectories.

Signals Traders Watch

Red Sea Security & Houthi Attack Frequency

Houthi militants launched over 100 attacks on commercial vessels in 2023-2024, targeting ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb toward Suez Canal. Attack frequency correlates inversely with Jeddah throughput—when weekly incidents exceed 3-4, container ship traffic drops 20-30% within 10-14 days as carriers divert via Cape of Good Hope. IMF PortWatch tracks Bab el-Mandeb transits daily; sustained declines below 50 vessels/day (vs. 80-100 pre-crisis) signal extended disruption periods.

Traders monitor ceasefire negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Houthi representatives, UN-brokered peace talks, and U.S. Navy escort operations (Operation Prosperity Guardian). Binary markets on "Will Bab el-Mandeb transits exceed 80% of 2023 levels by [quarter]?" offer direct exposure to security normalization timing.

Vessel Diversion to Dammam Port

When Jeddah experiences security-driven congestion, cargo diverts to King Abdul Aziz Port in Dammam on Saudi Arabia's Arabian Gulf coast. In H1 2024, Dammam's throughput jumped 37.4% to 1.5 million TEUs as Asia-origin vessels rerouted around Arabian Peninsula. Dammam's capacity (3.5M TEUs) creates a ceiling—when utilization exceeds 85%, backhaul to Jeddah becomes economical despite Red Sea risk premium.

Track the Jeddah-Dammam spread via IMF PortWatch's comparative throughput metrics. When Dammam's monthly volume exceeds 60% of combined Jeddah+Dammam total (vs. 25-30% historical norm), it signals Jeddah security concerns are acute. Position for mean reversion when peace negotiations advance.

Saudi Non-Oil GDP Growth

Jeddah imports machinery (+79% in 2024), transportation equipment (+42%), and construction materials supporting Vision 2030 diversification. Saudi non-oil GDP grew 4.2% in 2024, reaching 51% of total GDP for the first time. Non-oil private sector activity—retail, hospitality, construction—drives import demand through Jeddah.

Quarterly GASTAT (General Authority for Statistics) releases on non-oil GDP correlate with Jeddah throughput at 0.75 coefficient with 4-6 week lag (import orders → shipment → arrival). When non-oil GDP accelerates above 4%, position long on Jeddah throughput markets 8-10 weeks forward to capture import surge.

Vision 2030 Infrastructure Spending

Vision 2030 megaprojects—NEOM ($500B), Red Sea Project ($5B), Qiddiya entertainment city ($8B)—require massive equipment imports through Jeddah. Saudi Arabia awarded $196 billion in construction contracts in 2024, with 60-70% of machinery and project cargo arriving via Jeddah's breakbulk terminals.

Track Ministry of Investment project milestones, ACWA Power and Saudi Aramco capex announcements, and Public Investment Fund (PIF) quarterly reports. Accelerated project timelines (e.g., NEOM's 2026 Phase 1 target) drive 3-6 month forward imports visible in Jeddah booking data from freight forwarders.

Hajj & Umrah Pilgrimage Cycles

Hajj (annual, specific Islamic calendar dates) and Umrah (year-round) create predictable seasonality. For 2024 Hajj (June 14-19), imports surged April-May for food provisioning (grains, livestock, produce), textiles (tent fabric, carpets), and temporary infrastructure (cooling systems, sanitation equipment). The $171 billion Hajj economy (projected to reach $343B by 2034) generates 15-20% throughput spikes 60-90 days pre-pilgrimage.

Traders position long on Jeddah throughput in March-April for June Hajj, August-September for November Umrah (historically high attendance during Ramadan following). Use Islamic calendar (Hijri) to forecast pilgrimage timing, adjusting for 11-day annual shift vs. Gregorian calendar.

Bab el-Mandeb Passage Insurance Rates

War risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb spiked from $5,000-10,000 to $50,000-150,000 per voyage during 2024 Red Sea crisis. When premiums exceed $100k, carriers calculate Cape of Good Hope routing (adds 10-14 days, $500k fuel cost) becomes cost-neutral, triggering diversions.

Monitor Lloyd's of London war risk bulletins, International Group of P&I Clubs advisories, and JWC (Joint War Committee) high-risk area classifications. When Yemeni waters removed from high-risk list, premiums drop 60-80% within 2-3 weeks, signaling Jeddah traffic resumption.

Container Dwell Time

Pre-crisis, Jeddah dwell time averaged 3-4 days. During 2024 disruptions, dwell extended to 6-8 days as vessel bunching (delayed arrivals due to security slowdowns) overwhelmed terminal capacity. Extended dwell clogs the 1.5M square meter yard, forcing vessels to anchor offshore.

Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) publishes monthly dwell time averages. When dwell exceeds 6 days for two consecutive months, it signals structural congestion requiring carrier schedule adjustments. IMF PortWatch provides weekly estimates based on AIS turnaround times (berth arrival to departure).

Red Sea Gateway Terminal Capacity Utilization

RSGT's 6.2M TEU capacity provides throughput headroom for crisis recovery. At 3.7M TEUs (2024), utilization sits at 60%—well below the 75-80% level where congestion emerges. Traders track monthly throughput vs. capacity to gauge recovery pace.

When utilization exceeds 70% (4.3M TEU annual run rate), position for congestion risk via binary markets on dwell time thresholds or chassis availability. RSGT's 24 STS cranes and 17-meter draft provide operational buffers, but yard density becomes limiting factor above 80% utilization.

Ocean Freight Rates from Asia

Red Sea crisis pushed Shanghai-Jeddah container rates to $4,000-6,000/FEU in Q1 2024 (vs. $1,800-2,200 pre-crisis) due to Cape of Good Hope routing premiums and insurance surcharges. When rates exceed $5,000, Saudi importers frontload orders, creating 30-40 day forward throughput surges.

Monitor Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) Red Sea routes weekly. Rates above $4,500 for 4+ consecutive weeks signal importers accelerating shipments to beat cost increases, providing tradeable throughput uplift with 35-45 day lead time.

Historical Context

2024: Red Sea Crisis Impact

The 2024 Red Sea crisis marked Jeddah's most severe disruption since the Yemen civil war began in 2014. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb—launched in solidarity with Gaza during the Israel-Hamas conflict—reduced Red Sea transits by 40%. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd) suspended direct Jeddah calls, rerouting Asia-Europe vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Jeddah's container ship traffic dropped 14% (from 400 vessel calls in 2023 to 344 in 2024), while King Abdullah Port—Saudi Arabia's second Red Sea terminal 120km north—collapsed 70% (188 to 59 calls). Total TEU throughput fell 33% to 3.7 million, reversing three years of post-COVID growth. For traders, this period demonstrated how geopolitical shocks in chokepoints create non-linear demand destruction exploitable via scalar markets on throughput distributions and binary bets on security normalization timelines.

Despite disruption, Saudi Arabia's alternative routing through Dammam (Arabian Gulf) and increased air freight for time-sensitive goods prevented total supply chain collapse. This resilience offers calibration data for hedging Red Sea exposure—approximately 65-70% of Jeddah's typical volume can divert to other Saudi ports within 8-10 weeks, providing a floor for worst-case scenarios.

2023: Record Peak Before Crisis

Pre-crisis 2023 represented Jeddah's operational zenith. The port processed 5.6 million TEUs (previously reported as 4.96M in some sources; 5.6M represents full year). July 2023 achieved 491,197 TEUs—the highest monthly volume in port history—driven by Vision 2030 construction imports and pre-Hajj provisioning. Year-over-year growth of 1.57% continued Jeddah's steady expansion trajectory established post-2020.

This peak provides the baseline for recovery markets: "Will Jeddah exceed 5M TEUs in 2025?" or "When will monthly throughput return to 450k+ TEUs?" Resolution requires comparing current IMF PortWatch data against July 2023's 491k benchmark.

2020-2022: Pandemic & Recovery

COVID-19's initial impact (Q2 2020) reduced Jeddah throughput 18-22% as global trade contracted. However, Saudi Arabia's relatively insulated economy—driven by oil revenues and government spending—recovered faster than European or Latin American ports. By 2022, throughput reached 4.88 million TEUs, demonstrating resilience.

The pandemic period offers precedent for recovery timelines: Jeddah required 18 months (Q2 2020 to Q4 2021) to return to pre-crisis volumes. Apply this timeline to 2024 disruption—assuming Red Sea security stabilizes by Q2 2025, full recovery to 5M+ TEUs likely occurs Q4 2025 to Q1 2026.

2014-2024: Vision 2030 Era

Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 (announced 2016) aimed to diversify from oil dependence, with Jeddah Port identified as critical infrastructure. The $1.7 billion Red Sea Gateway Terminal expansion (2020-2024) increased capacity from 2.5M to 6.2M TEUs, reflecting confidence in long-term import growth.

Non-oil GDP's rise from 45% (2018) to 51% (2024) validates this investment. Non-oil exports surged 113% from Vision 2030's launch to $137 billion in 2024, with much of the supporting machinery and equipment imported through Jeddah. For traders, tracking Vision 2030 progress reports (published semi-annually) provides 6-12 month forward signals for Jeddah throughput.

1976-2014: Modern Containerization

Jeddah Islamic Port's modern container era began in 1976 with the opening of dedicated container terminals. The port evolved from a traditional breakbulk and pilgrimage gateway into Saudi Arabia's primary container hub, handling 70-80% of the Kingdom's Red Sea trade.

The 2000s brought mega-expansion: deepwater berths, post-Panamax cranes, and integration with the Mecca-Medina logistics corridor. By 2010, throughput exceeded 3 million TEUs, establishing Jeddah as the Middle East's third-largest container port after Jebel Ali (Dubai) and Salalah (Oman).

Ancient to Medieval Era: Historical Trade Hub

Jeddah's port history spans 1,500+ years as the Red Sea's primary gateway to Mecca. Medieval Islamic trading networks connected Jeddah to India, East Africa, and Southeast Asia—spices, textiles, and pilgrims flowed through the port. This historical role persists: modern Jeddah remains the economic artery for western Saudi Arabia, now serving 15+ million residents in Jeddah-Mecca-Medina metropolitan corridor.

Seasonality & Risk Drivers

Hajj Pilgrimage (Islamic Calendar Variable)

Hajj occurs during Dhu al-Hijjah (12th Islamic month), shifting 11 days earlier annually on Gregorian calendar. For 2024, Hajj occurred June 14-19; 2025 will occur June 4-9; 2026 on May 24-29. Import surges for provisioning (food, water, tents, medical supplies) begin 60-90 days prior.

April-May see 15-20% throughput increases ahead of June Hajj dates. Grain imports (rice, wheat for pilgrims) spike 40-50%, while construction materials for temporary housing and cooling systems arrive 8-10 weeks before. Traders position long on Jeddah throughput in February-March for April-May arrival surge, profit-taking in June as volumes normalize.

Saudi Arabia's goal to expand Hajj capacity from 1.8M (2024) to 5M pilgrims annually by 2030 implies sustained import growth. Every 1M additional pilgrims requires ~50,000 TEUs of provisioning cargo (food: 25k TEUs, infrastructure: 15k, consumer goods: 10k).

Umrah Pilgrimage (Year-Round with Ramadan Peak)

Umrah (minor pilgrimage) occurs year-round but peaks during Ramadan (9th Islamic month). For 2024, Ramadan ran March 10-April 9; 2025 will run February 28-March 29. Ramadan Umrah draws 2-3× normal monthly pilgrims (7-9M vs. 2-3M typical), driving 10-15% throughput increases in month preceding Ramadan.

Airlines operate additional Jeddah flights during Ramadan, creating secondary logistics demand for ground services, hospitality supplies, and retail goods. Traders position long on Jeddah in January-February for March Ramadan preparation, adjusting entry timing annually per Islamic calendar.

Vision 2030 Construction Cycles

Major project milestones drive equipment import surges. NEOM's Phase 1 target (2026) requires massive 2025-2026 imports of turbines, solar panels, desalination equipment, and construction machinery. Red Sea Project's resort openings (2024-2026) drive furniture, fixtures, and hospitality equipment imports.

Track Saudi Vision 2030 quarterly progress reports and Public Investment Fund announcements. When projects accelerate (e.g., contractor awards, milestone achievements), position long on Jeddah 3-6 months forward to capture equipment shipment lag.

Construction activity correlates with Saudi cement production (monthly GASTAT data) with 6-8 week lead. When cement output grows over 5% YoY for 2+ consecutive months, Jeddah typically sees construction material import increases 6-10 weeks later.

Red Sea Security Volatility

Geopolitical risk in Red Sea creates unpredictable shocks. Yemen conflict escalations, Iran-Saudi tensions, or Israel-Gaza spillovers trigger insurance rate spikes and carrier diversions within 48-72 hours. Unlike seasonal patterns, security events offer no advance warning—traders must monitor real-time news and adjust positions rapidly.

Use binary markets with 30-60 day expiries to capture security volatility: "Will Bab el-Mandeb transits exceed [threshold] in [month]?" Position conservatively (20-30% of typical size) due to headline risk and maintain 15-20% cash reserves for opportunistic entries during panic selling.

IMF PortWatch's daily Bab el-Mandeb transit counts provide early warnings—3+ consecutive days of less than 50 transits (vs. 80-100 baseline) signals acute crisis requiring portfolio rebalancing.

Saudi Economic Cycles

Saudi Arabia's economy correlates with oil prices (Brent crude) despite diversification efforts. When Brent exceeds $85/barrel, government spending accelerates (Vision 2030 projects, subsidies, public sector wages), driving consumer spending and import demand through Jeddah. Below $70/barrel, fiscal constraints slow project timelines and reduce consumer imports.

Non-oil GDP exhibits 4-6 month lag vs. oil prices—$80→$90 Brent increases take 4-6 months to translate into non-oil activity via government budget execution. Jeddah throughput lags non-oil GDP by additional 6-8 weeks (order→shipment→arrival). Total lag: oil price changes → Jeddah imports = 6-8 months.

Quarterly GASTAT GDP reports (released ~45 days after quarter-end) provide confirmation signals. Combine with monthly SAMA (Saudi Central Bank) data on private sector loans (leading indicator for import financing) for 8-10 week forward visibility.

Summer Heat Operational Constraints

Jeddah temperatures exceed 40°C (104°F) June-September, reducing crane operator productivity 10-15% and extending vessel discharge times. While air-conditioned equipment mitigates impacts, extreme heat (over 45°C) can force temporary operations suspensions for worker safety.

Summer slowdowns typically add 0.5-1.0 days to average dwell time. For traders, this creates predictable Q3 congestion risk—when throughput exceeds 450k TEUs/month in summer, dwell time often breaches 5-day thresholds, creating binary market opportunities on congestion metrics.

How to Trade It on Prediction Markets

Ballast Markets enables traders to express views on Jeddah Islamic Port throughput, Red Sea security, and Saudi economic diversification through three primary market types:

Binary Markets

Binary markets offer YES/NO outcomes for specific thresholds:

"Will Jeddah Port monthly throughput exceed 400,000 TEUs in March 2025?" Resolution: Official Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) statistics published ~7-10 business days after month-end. Use IMF PortWatch AIS-derived estimates for 5-7 day informational edge before official data. Note: 400k represents ~7.2% above 2024 monthly average (372k), signaling crisis recovery.

"Will Red Sea vessel transits through Bab el-Mandeb exceed 2,000 in December 2024?" Resolution: IMF PortWatch monthly chokepoint transit data. 2,000 transits = ~65 vessels/day, representing ~75% of pre-crisis baseline (80-85/day). Position based on ceasefire negotiations and Houthi attack frequency.

"Will Saudi Arabia non-oil GDP grow over 4% in Q4 2024?" Resolution: GASTAT quarterly GDP release (typically 45 days post-quarter). Non-oil GDP correlates 0.75 with Jeddah imports; over 4% growth signals sustained throughput recovery. Use as basket component with Jeddah throughput markets.

"Will Jeddah Port exceed 4.5M TEUs total in 2025?" Resolution: Mawani annual statistics (published January 2026). 4.5M represents 22% recovery from 2024's 3.7M, implying partial Red Sea normalization. Price based on security trajectory and Vision 2030 import momentum.

Positioning tips: Binary markets work best for event-driven catalysts—peace agreement announcements, Vision 2030 milestones, Hajj season surges. Watch for Saudi-Houthi negotiations (MbS statements, UN envoy reports), NEOM project awards, and Bab el-Mandeb insurance rate changes. Use limit orders to avoid overpaying during geopolitical headline volatility.

Scalar Markets

Scalar markets allow trading on specific ranges or indices:

"Jeddah Port Throughput Index — Q1 2025" Range: 0–150 (baseline = 100, representing 2023 quarterly average of 1.4M TEUs) Resolution: Indexed to official quarterly TEU volume vs. 2023 baseline Notes: Captures both directional recovery and volatility exposure. Trade spreads between Q1 and Q2 to express Hajj seasonality views or Red Sea security improvement timing.

"Red Sea Security Index — Monthly Average" Range: 0–100 (composite: 40% Bab el-Mandeb transits, 30% insurance rates, 30% Houthi incidents) Resolution: Weighted index using IMF PortWatch, Lloyd's war risk data, and UKMTO incident reports Notes: Directly exposes geopolitical risk without port-specific volatility. Use as hedge for Jeddah throughput longs or basis trade vs. Dammam port markets.

"Saudi Non-Oil Imports (Machinery) — Quarterly" Range: $8B–$20B per quarter Resolution: GASTAT trade statistics, machinery & equipment category Notes: Leading indicator for Jeddah industrial cargo (6-8 week lag). When machinery imports exceed $15B/quarter, Jeddah typically sees 8-10% throughput increases within 10-12 weeks.

"Hajj Provisional Import Index — Pre-Pilgrimage 90 Days" Range: 80–140 (baseline = 100, representing 2019-2023 average 90-day pre-Hajj TEUs) Resolution: Jeddah throughput in 90 days preceding Hajj vs. historical average Notes: Isolates pilgrimage-driven seasonality from security and macro factors. Trade annually with 4-5 month setup window (e.g., enter February for June Hajj).

Positioning tips: Scalar markets provide granular exposure to throughput recovery pace and geopolitical normalization timing. Use for calendar spreads (Q1 vs. Q3 2025 to express security improvement trajectory) or cross-market spreads (Jeddah vs. Dammam to trade cargo diversion reversal). Size positions based on historical volatility—Jeddah exhibits ~22% quarterly std dev during crisis periods vs. 8-10% in stable conditions.

Index Basket Strategies

Combine Jeddah Islamic Port with related markets to create diversified positions:

Red Sea Trade Corridor Index Components: Jeddah throughput (35%), Bab el-Mandeb transits (25%), Suez Canal transits (25%), Red Sea insurance rates (15%) Use case: Comprehensive exposure to Red Sea supply chain recovery without single-point port risk Construction: Weight resolution sources—Jeddah (Mawani), Bab el-Mandeb (IMF PortWatch), Suez (SCA monthly reports), insurance (Lloyd's/JWC) Trade thesis: Security normalization benefits entire corridor; basket reduces idiosyncratic port risk while maintaining geopolitical beta

Saudi Diversification Basket Components: Jeddah throughput (30%), Saudi non-oil GDP (25%), Vision 2030 project capex (20%), machinery imports (15%), Hajj tourism revenue (10%) Use case: Broad exposure to Vision 2030 progress using Jeddah as logistics proxy Rationale: Diversification from oil (now 49% GDP) drives import demand; Jeddah captures physical goods flow supporting non-oil economy Trade thesis: Long Saudi economic transformation with multiple resolution vectors reducing binary risk

Middle East Port Diversion Spread Long Jeddah congestion threshold / Short Dammam capacity utilization Rationale: Red Sea security recovery diverts cargo from Arabian Gulf (Dammam) back to Red Sea (Jeddah). Trade the reversion flow. Entry: When Dammam utilization over 75% (stressed) and Jeddah less than 65% (underutilized), implying security-driven disequilibrium Exit: Ratios normalize to 70% Jeddah / 55% Dammam (pre-crisis levels) Hedge: Include Bab el-Mandeb transit binary to offset security deterioration risk

Asia-Saudi Trade Flow Basket Combine Jeddah Chinese imports (via AIS origin tracking) + Shanghai-Jeddah freight rates + China-Saudi bilateral trade value Use case: Isolate trade policy risk (tariffs, quotas) from logistics risk (Red Sea security) Data sources: China Customs (monthly), SCFI Red Sea routes (weekly), IMF PortWatch vessel origins (daily) Trade thesis: China supplies 20-25% of Saudi imports; Jeddah is primary entry point. Basket captures demand shifts independent of Red Sea security.

Hajj Seasonality Calendar Spread Long Jeddah Q2 throughput / Short Q4 throughput Rationale: Hajj preparation (Q2: April-June) drives imports; post-Hajj (Q4: October-December) sees normalization Historical spread: Q2 runs 12-18% above Q4 on average (2019-2023 data) Entry: February-March when Q2/Q4 spread less than 10% (underpriced seasonality) Exit: May when spread peaks or August to avoid carry costs

Risk Management:

Exit Strategy:

Infrastructure & Capacity

Red Sea Gateway Terminal (RSGT)

Completed in February 2024, the $1.7 billion RSGT expansion transformed Jeddah into a mega-port capable of handling 24,000 TEU vessels. The terminal occupies 1.5 million square meters (expanded from 700,000), featuring 11 berths along 2,600 meters of quay wall. Twenty-four ship-to-shore (STS) cranes—including 18 post-Panamax units—enable simultaneous discharge of three mega-vessels.

The northern channel deepening to 17 meters accommodates fully laden 24,000 TEU ships (MSC Irina-class, CMA CGM Champs-Élysées-class), reducing lightering requirements that previously added 8-12 hours to turnaround times. Yard capacity increased to 6.2 million TEUs annual throughput—67% above 2024's 3.7M actual, providing headroom for crisis recovery and Vision 2030 growth.

RSGT operates under a 20-year concession from Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani), with performance targets tied to Vision 2030 logistics efficiency goals. The terminal achieved 3.1 million TEUs in 2024 (50% of total capacity), demonstrating operational resilience despite Red Sea disruptions.

South Container Terminal

Jeddah's secondary container facility handles 2-2.5 million TEUs annually, focusing on regional feeders and smaller vessels (3,000-8,000 TEU). Eight berths with 1,200 meters of quay serve intra-Red Sea routes (Aqaba, Djibouti, Port Sudan) and Arabian Gulf feeder connections (Kuwait, Bahrain).

The South Terminal's 14-meter draft limits mega-vessel access, but provides operational flexibility during RSGT congestion. In 2024, South Terminal handled ~20% of total throughput (740k TEUs), serving smaller operators (ZIM, Arkas, UASC regional services) bypassed by mainline alliances.

Breakbulk & Project Cargo Terminals

Jeddah's breakbulk terminals handle steel, machinery, and project cargo for Vision 2030 construction. Berths 24-32 feature 300-ton heavy-lift cranes for wind turbines, desalination modules, and industrial equipment. In 2024, breakbulk volumes reached 1.2 million freight tons—up 18% YoY despite container decline—driven by NEOM and Red Sea Project imports.

Project cargo traffic provides countercyclical exposure to container disruptions: when container ships divert due to security concerns, breakbulk charters (less vulnerable to Houthi attacks on containerized trade) maintain flow. Traders can exploit this divergence via baskets combining Jeddah container TEUs (down) with breakbulk tons (up) to isolate security vs. economic demand signals.

Passenger & Pilgrimage Terminals

Five passenger terminals (Reception Halls 1-5) process 120,000+ pilgrims annually arriving by sea from Egypt, Sudan, and East Africa. During Hajj, terminals operate 24/7 with dedicated customs and health screening for high-volume pilgrim processing.

While passenger volumes are modest vs. air arrivals (1.8M total pilgrims in 2024, ~95% by air), the maritime pilgrimage infrastructure supports Jeddah's unique role as Islamic gateway. Vision 2030 targets 5M annual pilgrims by 2030, implying potential 3-4× growth in associated provisioning cargo and support logistics.

Inland Connectivity

Jeddah connects to Mecca (70km), Medina (420km), and Riyadh (950km) via highway and rail. The Haramain High-Speed Railway (launched 2018) links Jeddah-Mecca-Medina in 2 hours, facilitating pilgrim movement and reducing road freight pressure. For cargo, the 450km North-South Railway (Arabian Gulf to Red Sea) enables Jeddah-Dammam transloading, though capacity constraints limit current utilization.

Vision 2030 includes $50 billion in logistics infrastructure: highway expansion, rail freight corridors, and dry port development in Riyadh. These investments aim to reduce Jeddah-Riyadh transit times from 18-20 hours (truck) to 12-14 hours (intermodal), supporting Saudi Arabia's logistics hub ambitions.

Traders monitor infrastructure milestone announcements for 12-18 month forward signals on Jeddah capacity expansion and inland distribution efficiency improvements.

Geopolitical Context & Red Sea Security

Houthi Attacks & Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint

Yemen's Houthi rebels (Ansar Allah movement) control territory adjacent to Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the 29km-wide passage connecting Red Sea to Gulf of Aden. Beginning October 2023, Houthis launched attacks on commercial vessels using drones, anti-ship missiles, and waterborne IEDs, claiming solidarity with Gaza during Israel-Hamas conflict.

By early 2024, attacks exceeded 100 incidents, targeting container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers. Major incidents include:

Attacks reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits 40% (from 80-100 vessels/day to 50-60), forcing carriers onto Cape of Good Hope routing (adds 3,500 nautical miles, 10-14 days transit time, $500k-800k fuel cost). Insurance war risk premiums spiked to $50k-150k per voyage, making alternative routing economically rational despite distance.

For Jeddah, Houthi attacks created two channels of disruption:

  1. Direct: Vessels avoided Red Sea entirely, bypassing Jeddah for Dammam (Arabian Gulf) access
  2. Indirect: Insurance and fuel surcharges increased landed costs 15-25%, reducing Saudi import demand

Traders monitor:

Binary markets on "Will Bab el-Mandeb be removed from JWC high-risk list by [quarter]?" offer direct security exposure with clear resolution criteria.

Saudi-Yemen Conflict

Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen's civil war (2015) leading coalition against Houthis, but shifted toward de-escalation 2022-2024. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) prioritizes Vision 2030 economic goals over military objectives, pursuing ceasefire negotiations mediated by Oman and China.

March 2023 Saudi-Iran detente (China-brokered) reduced proxy conflict intensity, creating conditions for Saudi-Houthi dialogue. By late 2024, talks progressed on ceasefire framework, though Red Sea attacks complicate normalization.

For traders, Saudi-Yemen peace represents the primary catalyst for Jeddah throughput recovery. Key milestones to monitor:

Position for peace dividends via calendar spreads: long 6-9 month Jeddah throughput forwards (capture recovery) vs. short 1-3 month (maintain crisis exposure).

U.S. & Allied Naval Operations

Operation Prosperity Guardian (launched December 2023) deployed U.S., UK, and allied naval assets to escort commercial vessels through Red Sea. However, Houthi attacks persisted due to:

Naval presence provides floor on security—attacks decreased from peak of 15-20/month (January 2024) to 5-8/month (Q3-Q4 2024)—but insufficient to restore pre-crisis confidence. Insurance rates remain elevated (3-5× baseline) until sustained attack-free period (60+ days) is achieved.

Traders use naval deployment announcements (additional destroyers, carrier groups) as contrarian indicators—heavy military presence acknowledges ongoing threat, delaying carrier route resumption. Conversely, drawdowns signal security normalization, though with 45-60 day lag for insurance market adjustment.

Regional Competition: Iran, Israel, Egypt

Iran supplies Houthis with weapons/intelligence, viewing Red Sea disruption as leverage against U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Iran-Saudi normalization (2023) reduced tensions but Iran maintains ties to Houthis for strategic depth. Escalations in Iran-Israel conflict spill over into Red Sea security.

Israel faces Houthi long-range strikes (drones, missiles) and views Red Sea attacks as extension of Iran-backed "Axis of Resistance." Israeli military actions in Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran trigger Houthi retaliation cycles affecting Jeddah trade.

Egypt depends on Suez Canal revenues ($9-10B annually), suffering from Red Sea diversions that reduce transits 20-30%. Egypt pressures international community for Red Sea security but limited military capability to address Houthi threat independently.

For prediction markets, this multi-actor complexity creates basis trades: long Jeddah throughput (Saudi-specific) vs. short Suez Canal transits (regional proxy) to isolate Jeddah's unique recovery drivers (Vision 2030 domestic demand, Dammam-Jeddah cargo rebalancing) from broader Red Sea normalization timing.

Related Markets & Pages

Related Ports:

Related Chokepoints:

Related Tariff Corridors:

Related Markets:

Related Content:

Start Trading Jeddah Port Signals

Ready to trade Jeddah port volumes and shipping signals?

Ballast Markets offers binary and scalar contracts on port throughput, shipping delays, and trade flow predictions. Use real-time data to hedge logistics risk or speculate on global trade patterns.

FAQ

How accurate is IMF PortWatch for Jeddah compared to official data? IMF PortWatch uses satellite AIS tracking, which in the Red Sea has 85-90% correlation with Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) official statistics, lower than developed markets (92-96% for LA/Rotterdam) due to regional security affecting AIS compliance. Some vessels disable transponders near Yemen waters. Use PortWatch for directional signals and weekly trends; confirm with Mawani monthly reports (released 7-10 business days post-month) before resolving large positions.

What's the correlation between oil prices and Jeddah throughput? Jeddah imports correlate +0.55 with Brent crude prices with 6-8 month lag (oil revenues → government spending → import demand). When Brent exceeds $85/barrel, Saudi fiscal expansion accelerates Vision 2030 projects and consumer spending. Below $70, import growth slows 3-4 quarters later. However, 2024 broke historical patterns—oil averaged $80-85 but Red Sea crisis overrode price signal. Use oil as Saudi demand proxy only in stable security environments.

Can foreign traders access Jeddah Port data in real-time? Mawani publishes official statistics monthly with 7-10 day lag. IMF PortWatch provides daily AIS-derived estimates. Real-time terminal data (berth occupancy, yard utilization) is restricted. Third-party logistics providers (Agility, Aramex) offer freight forwarder surveys with 2-3 week lag. Best approach: IMF PortWatch daily → validate with Mawani monthly → supplement with freight rate proxies (SCFI Red Sea routes weekly).

How do I trade the Jeddah-Dammam cargo diversion reversal? Create spread position: Long Jeddah Q2 2025 throughput index / Short Dammam Q2 2025 capacity utilization. Rationale: As Red Sea security improves, cargo reverts from Arabian Gulf (Dammam) to Red Sea (Jeddah) due to 2-3 day shorter transit from Asia. Entry: When Dammam utilization over 75% (stressed) and Jeddah less than 65%. Target exit: 70% Jeddah / 55% Dammam (historical norm). Hedge with Bab el-Mandeb transit binary to offset security backsliding.

What's the best leading indicator for Jeddah throughput? Saudi non-oil private sector loans (SAMA monthly data) lead Jeddah imports by 8-10 weeks. When loan growth exceeds 6% YoY for 2+ consecutive months, Jeddah typically sees 4-6% throughput increases 8-12 weeks later as importers finance inventory. Combine with Vision 2030 project award announcements (3-6 month lag for equipment imports) and Shanghai-Jeddah freight bookings (4-5 week lag). Multi-indicator approach reduces false signals.

How does Jeddah's expansion to 6.2M TEU capacity affect trading? At 3.7M TEUs (2024), Jeddah operates at 60% capacity. Congestion typically emerges at 75-80% utilization (4.6-5.0M TEUs). This headroom means throughput can grow 25-35% before infrastructure becomes constraining factor—bullish for recovery trades. However, low current utilization (60%) signals crisis disruption remains acute. Trade calendar spreads: long 2026 throughput (assumes recovery to 5.0-5.5M) vs. short 2025 (conservative 4.0-4.5M) to capture normalization pace uncertainty.

What role does NEOM play in Jeddah Port volumes? NEOM's $500B megacity project (500km north of Jeddah) requires massive equipment imports 2024-2030. Phase 1 targets 2026 completion: desalination plants, renewable energy systems, construction machinery. Estimated 500k-800k TEUs annually 2025-2027, representing 13-20% of Jeddah's pre-crisis throughput. Monitor NEOM quarterly updates and contractor awards (ACWA Power, Saudi Aramco, Bechtel). When project milestones accelerate, position long on Jeddah 3-6 months forward to capture import surge.

How do insurance war risk premiums affect Jeddah trading? War risk premiums for Red Sea transits spiked from $5k-10k to $50k-150k per voyage in 2024. At $100k+, carriers prefer Cape of Good Hope routing despite 10-14 day delay. Insurance rates lead throughput by 20-30 days (policy renewal → route decision → vessel arrival). Monitor Lloyd's of London bulletins and JWC high-risk area lists. When premiums drop below $50k, Red Sea routing resumes—position long Jeddah 25-35 days forward to capture traffic return.

Can I create custom Jeddah markets tied to Vision 2030 milestones? Yes—Ballast allows custom markets on any resolvable metric. Examples: "Jeddah throughput exceeds 5M TEUs in year of NEOM Phase 1 completion" or "Jeddah captures over 45% of Saudi total trade volume by 2027." Define resolution source (Mawani annual reports, Vision 2030 progress updates) and set parameters. For milestone-linked markets, use conditional resolution: "If NEOM Phase 1 completes in 2026, resolve to Jeddah 2026 TEUs; if 2027, resolve to 2027 TEUs." See Creating Conditional Markets.

What's the downside scenario for Jeddah if Red Sea crisis persists 2+ years? Extended crisis (2025-2026) would accelerate permanent cargo diversion to Dammam and East African routes (Mombasa, Dar es Salaam). Saudi Arabia might expand Dammam capacity from 3.5M to 6-7M TEUs, reducing Jeddah's structural market share from 70% to 50% of Saudi container trade. Floor scenario: 3.0-3.5M TEUs annually (vs. 5.6M pre-crisis), as domestic Saudi demand (non-oil GDP growth) provides baseline. Trade this via long Dammam / short Jeddah spread, or put spreads on Jeddah utilization rates.

How does Hajj pilgrim count affect prediction markets? Saudi Arabia targets 5M Hajj pilgrims annually by 2030 (vs. 1.8M in 2024). Each 1M additional pilgrims requires ~50k TEUs provisioning cargo (food, water, tents, medical supplies). Growth from 1.8M to 5M implies 160k additional TEUs by 2030—equivalent to 3-4% of Jeddah's current throughput. Trade via Hajj seasonality calendar spreads: long pre-Hajj quarters (Q2) vs. short post-Hajj (Q4). Resolution uses Saudi Ministry of Hajj annual pilgrim statistics (published 2-3 weeks post-Hajj).

What correlation should I expect between Jeddah and Dubai's Jebel Ali? Historical correlation: +0.60 (both serve Middle East consumer markets). 2024 divergence: Jebel Ali grew 3-5% while Jeddah fell 33% due to Red Sea-specific security risk. Jebel Ali's Arabian Gulf location (Hormuz Strait access) insulated from Houthi attacks. Spread trade opportunity: long Jeddah / short Jebel Ali (or neutral Jebel Ali) to express mean reversion thesis as Red Sea normalizes. Entry when spread reaches -25 to -30 percentage points (Jeddah underperformance), target exit at -5 to -10 points (historical range).

How do I hedge physical Saudi import cargo exposure using Jeddah markets? If importing $5M goods via Jeddah arriving Q2 2025, you face security risk (Red Sea attacks), congestion risk (dwell time), and cost risk (insurance surcharges). Hedge via binary: buy "YES" on "Red Sea incidents over 8 in Q2 2025" or "Jeddah dwell time over 6 days in Q2." Size hedge to expected loss: if 30% probability of 3-week delay costing $200k, buy $60k notional "YES" at 30 cents. If disruption occurs, $100k payout ($60k/.30 = $200k notional × 0.5 profit) offsets $200k delay cost.

What's the outlook for Jeddah Port 2025-2027? Base case (60% probability): Gradual recovery to 4.5-5.0M TEUs by end-2026 as Saudi-Houthi ceasefire takes hold Q2-Q3 2025. Insurance rates normalize to $20k-30k (from $100k+), carriers reinstate Red Sea routes Q3-Q4 2025 with 6-9 month ramp. Vision 2030 imports (machinery, construction materials) provide demand floor.

Bull case (25% probability): Rapid security resolution Q1 2025 via comprehensive Yemen peace deal. Bab el-Mandeb transits return to 90% of baseline by Q2, Jeddah recovers to 5.5-6.0M TEUs by end-2025. NEOM acceleration and Hajj expansion (3M pilgrims by 2027) drive upside.

Bear case (15% probability): Prolonged crisis through 2025-2026, Houthi attacks persist, cargo permanently diverts to Dammam and East Africa. Jeddah plateaus at 3.5-4.0M TEUs, Vision 2030 projects slow due to fiscal constraints (oil below $75/barrel). Trade accordingly via asymmetric binary bets and wide strike scalar positions.

Sources

Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Ballast Markets is not affiliated with PolyMarket or Kalshi. Data references include IMF PortWatch (accessed October 2025), Saudi Ports Authority official statistics, and Red Sea security reports. Trading involves risk, especially in geopolitically sensitive regions. Predictions may differ from actual outcomes. Red Sea security conditions remain fluid; consult current advisories before making trading decisions.